11/18/2005
Stratfor: "Realism in Russia?" by Peter Zeihan
Realism in Russia?
By Peter ZeihanFrom an American perspective, the Eurasian
landmass can be both an intimidating and endlessly invigorating place.
Intimidating, because it is the only landmass on the planet save that of
North America that has sufficient resources to nurture and give rise to a
truly global power; invigorating, because the existence of many disparate
powers there make the task of preventing a single power from arising
relatively easy. The sheer size, internal geographic divides and myriad
states and ethnic groups that are native to Eurasia are perhaps the
strongest factor guaranteeing U.S. national strength -- and on a
subconscious level, all U.S. policymakers realize that.
Within
Eurasia, the perception is, of course, different -- and particularly in
Russia, at the heart of the entire region. While the interconnections of
North America's geographic features -- its plains, river systems and coasts
-- promote development and political unification, Russia's endless tracts of
land and sequestered river systems assist with neither.
As a massive
territory with no easily defensible borders, Russia's geography has dictated
major aspects of its political history: It has been, at various points, a
conglomeration of fractured principalities (the era of Muscovy and Tartary),
a region subjected to sweeping and brutal occupations (the Mongol
occupation), and a native centralized tyranny that was able in various ways
to subjugate the principalities (the tsarist era and the Soviet period).
The result is a culture that equates change with pain, and one that
reflexively views the outsider as either a threat or as a parasite. It is a
logic that is difficult to counter. On one hand, Russia's major interactions
with outside powers -- whether Mongol, Polish, German or Islamic -- have not
left it with sweet memories. On the other, it is obvious that Russia's
suffering under outside powers was beneficial to others: For example, the
Mongol occupation of Russia spared Europe a similar experience, while the
Nazi invasion of Russia set the groundwork for the birth of the
American-dominated West we know today.
The resulting cultural impact
could be best described as a sense of besieged entitlement -- and never has
it been more evident in Russian policy than since the Soviet collapse.
At several points in the past 15 years -- NATO's war against
Belgrade, the introduction of U.S. forces to Uzbekistan, the EU accession of
Finland and Sweden, and Ukraine's recent attempts at realignment, to name
only a few -- Russia's initial resistance and defiance was followed by
stunned disbelief.
In retrospect, all of these were events that could
be expected as a once-dominant power weakened, but then why was Russian
preparation for these battles so nonexistent? Why were Russia's reactions to
critical losses limited to anger and rhetoric, as opposed to preparation for
the future? The answer goes deeper than simply a lack of options -- Russia
was, and remains, a powerful country with many tools for making its views
known and its will reality.
What Russia has lacked, however, is an
elite class that is capable of pushing beyond the bounds of what could be
described as fatalistic paranoia. Put another way, the Russian leadership
has suffered from a superiority complex based on an inferiority complex:
Because Russia has suffered greatly, the argument would go, it is both
stronger and entitled to a greater role within the global community than it
feels it has been afforded. While such a viewpoint can be psychologically
comforting, it is frequently less than useful in maneuvering through the
grand and often deadly game of geopolitics.
And so Russia has fallen
back. At least partly as a result of a clouded worldview, it has lost
influence and territory: Nicaragua, Syria, Mozambique, Angola, Vietnam,
Poland, Latvia, Cuba, Serbia, Mongolia, Georgia, Ukraine. But worst of all,
from the standpoint of a Russian, Moscow has yet to demonstrate it is
capable of crafting a response consisting of anything more substantive than
rhetoric.
Russia needs many things if it is to halt this seemingly
unending slide. But perhaps the one thing it needs most urgently is a new
point of view. And earlier this week, it appeared that changes under way at
the Kremlin could be destined to give it just that.
On Nov. 14, two
unusual Russian politicians -- Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov -- were
appointed as deputy prime ministers. Their rise signals a sharpening of
Russian policy both at home and abroad, with the Kremlin beginning to take a
clear-eyed view of its positions and policies around the world.
A
New World View?
To understand the potential direction of Russian
policy, it is important first to understand these two men.
First,
Medvedev. The former presidential chief of staff, now first deputy prime
minister, is certainly a pro-Western technocrat. But he is akin to neither
the starry-eyed reformers who applied disastrous shock therapy in the 1990s,
nor idealistic pro-Westerners in the mold of Grigory Yavlinsky who want to
see Western democratic institutions grafted wholesale onto Russia. At 40,
Medvedev is just old enough to fully comprehend how far Russia has fallen --
having been 24 when the Berlin Wall fell -- but just young enough to have a
mindset radically different from his predecessors. Most critical is that he
admires the West despite the fact that -- unlike Putin -- he has never
worked abroad. His respect is rooted in the accomplishments of the West and
what Russia potentially could gain from them, not out of the unrealistic
desire of many of Russia's pro-Westerners to actually "join" the
West.
In contrast with most reformers, Medvedev believes that the
state should play a strong role in the economy -- particularly in key
sectors such as energy. Medvedev was a key, if quiet, figure in the
onslaught against Yukos, and he is chairman of the board for Gazprom,
Russia's state natural gas monopoly -- which just happens to be the world's
largest energy company. These are not the stances and actions of someone who
believes that capitalism is a magic wand that will fix all of Russia's
problems.
Ivanov, who was Russia's defense minister before being
named deputy prime minister, is similar in his uniqueness. Like Putin,
Ivanov spent the bulk of his career in the Federal Security Service (FSB),
and both were stationed in Europe for a time. Thus, he, like Medvedev, has a
healthy respect for military, economic, political, social and technological
capabilities of the West. But where Medvedev sees opportunities in
interactions with the West, Ivanov perceives threats. Thus, he is a magnet
for the siloviki -- a group of foreign policy, military and
intelligence personnel who want to see Russia restored to its former
glory.
Yet while Russia's nationalists in general and the siloviki
in particular consider him their best-known sympathizer, Ivanov is far more
pragmatic than the average nationalist. Unlike many of the defense ministers
who came before him, he is not concerned about NATO tanks rolling eastward --
realizing that the United States, much less the rest of NATO, lacks that
capacity. Instead, he worries about the steady expansion of Western
influence -- which spread first to Central Europe, then the Baltics, the
Balkans, the Caucasus, and now Ukraine. Ivanov views the West as more of a
cultural and economic threat to Russia than as a military juggernaut.
Both Medvedev and Ivanov are pragmatists and patriots -- though they
obviously still hold their own business interests as well -- and thus are
more likely to occupy the middle ground that pure reformers or nationalists
avoid.
Medvedev sees Western-style corporate governance as a sound
ideal to impose on Russia's oligarchs -- but not at Gazprom, which he sees
as a key to future foreign policy. Ivanov sees cooperation with NATO as a
necessary evil, but more as a means of building a more efficient Russian
military than out of any expectation of swaying NATO policy. And both men
see China as an opportunity: It is a customer for Russian energy and
weapons, and -- by forming a political alliance against the West -- a
crucial potential partner in security policy. But, unlike the siloviki, they
are also more likely to take a comprehensive view of the power to the east,
noting the implications of its giant economy and China's recent "Northern
Sword" military exercises, staged on Russia's southern border. It has not
been lost on either that ethnic Chinese in the border region outnumber the
Russians by more than ten to one.
In short, both see threats in
every opportunity, and opportunities in every threat, making them the first
competent, pragmatic, clear-eyed politicians to reach the top of Russia's
political heap since the Soviet breakup.
Yet neither Medvedev nor
Ivanov is a particularly strong candidate to succeed Putin, despite rife
speculation on that score in the Russian press. Medvedev is Putin's prot�g�,
Gazprom's chairman, and the Kremlin's grey cardinal, but so far he lacks a
sizeable political following from which to independently launch his career.
He well could cultivate such a resource in the next three years, but he does
not have it yet.
Ivanov, meanwhile, is likely not someone to whom
Putin would gladly hand the reins. Unlike Medvedev or Ivanov, Putin is an
instinctual Westernizer -- to the degree that the Russian press has often
quipped: Putin Joins West, Russia May Follow.
So why advance Ivanov
into greater prominence? Two reasons. First, Ivanov has the ability to
either unleash or hold back the nationalist tide, a capacity that Putin
would be foolish to ignore. Second, should Putin's goal of Westernizing come
to naught (something that must have at least crossed his mind as Ukraine
peeled away), Russia would be forced into direct confrontation to the West.
If Russia is to be ruled by a nationalist, Putin would prefer that it be
ruled by a nationalist who is capable of viewing the world without the
preconceptions that have cost Moscow so much.
While this shift has
significant implications for Russian policy, it is important not to overplay
what has occurred. The rise of Medvedev and Ivanov is an important first step
in a shift that Putin is trying to engineer -- but not the shift in sum. That
said, it is clear that the rise of these two men will influence policy in
more than simply subtle ways -- particularly since their promotions
coincided this week with other events of note.
Russian Policy:
Through a Prism of Pragmatism
Another aspect of Putin's Cabinet
reshuffle was the unceremonious sacking of Konstantin Pulikovsky, Putin's
envoy to the Russian Far East (and point-man for the Kremlin's North Korea
policy), without the benefit of a follow-on position. And on the same day,
the FSB arrested Igor Reshetin, general director of TsNIIMASH-Export
company, and two of his deputies for (illegally) transferring space
technology to the Chinese.
For the past decade, Russia's Far East
policy has been quite simple: China is a natural ally of Russia and as such
should be extended economic, political, military and technological favors as
a means of solidifying the relationship.
This perception, has not,
however, been reflected south of the Amur River. While the Kremlin treated
China as an ally, Beijing has viewed Russia as an opportunity at best or a
nuisance at worst -- but certainly not an equal. Wary of political strings
Russia tends to attach to deals, China has been focusing on Kazakhstan as a
key source of energy supplies, and sending its money there rather than to
Russia. Meanwhile, Beijing is unofficially encouraging its citizens to
migrate to Siberia, while also buying Russian hardware to upgrade its
military capabilities. And China has steadily siphoned influence away in
North Korea, leaving Russia largely an outside observer in the six-party
nuclear negotiations. None of this would have been possible if Moscow had
been taking a more realistic assessment of Beijing's motives and
actions.
Between Reshetin's arrest, Pulikovsky's dismissal and
Ivanov's rise, a full re-evaluation of Russia's Far East policy appears to
be in the works -- if not the formation of a new policy that will no longer
blindly assist China's rise without consideration of the long-term
consequences for Russia.
Similarly, Russian policies in Central Asia
are being re-evaluated, although here -- where Moscow's direct influence is
much stronger -- the actions are bolder. A mutual defense treaty Putin
signed in Tashkent on Nov. 14 signals light-years of change from the mutual
hostility that characterized the bilateral relationship as little as two
years ago. This is partly because of a shift within Uzbekistan itself:
President Islam Karimov feels that the United States not only engineered the
various color revolutions that have brought about government changes in
Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, but that Uzbekistan was next on
Washington's list.
Despite its many problems, Uzbekistan is the
most powerful Central Asian state, and whoever has the most influence there
can shape events throughout the region. Due to a much more proactive Russian
stance -- influenced in no small part by Ivanov -- that player is no longer
Beijing or Washington, but Moscow. In fact, not only is the airbase the
United States set up in southern Uzbekistan for the Afghan war being
dismantled on Tashkent's orders, but the Nov. 14 treaty raised the
possibility of a Russian replacement.
Russian proactivity in Central
Asia is not limited to the military sector or Uzbek geography. On Nov. 14, as
so many other key changes were being announced, Gazprom -- which, remember,
is chaired by Medvedev -- entered into a five-year deal that locks down
control of all natural gas exported via Kazakhstan. A good chunk of
Kazakhstan's oil may soon be flowing to China, but now Gazprom is swallowing
all natural gas exported by all Central Asian states. Anyone who wants to
purchase Central Asian natural will discover that they actually have to buy
it from Gazprom. Which means from Medvedev -- and thus, from the
Kremlin.
This change is likely to flare open some eyes across Europe
-- particularly in the Baltics and Ukraine, where leaders are used to being
able to purchase natural gas from Turkmenistan as a means of increasing
their independence from Moscow. Now there is only one player in town, and
that player sets all the prices. Russia has threatened for years to charge
states that do not play by its rules more for natural gas, a development
that would cripple most of them. Now there are no barriers whatsoever to
stop Russia from following through as it sees fit.
Implications of
a Russian Shift
Such policies will, of course, have consequences.
China long has taken the existence of an amicably passive Russia as a given.
A Russia that is openly suspicious -- or even one that asks the occasional
nervous question about "Northern Swords" -- is one that Beijing needs to
figure into its planning in a very different way.
Relations with
Europe are bound to get sticky as well. For instance, the question of
Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization likely will move into
limbo. The biggest point of contention is the role that Gazprom plays in
pricing natural gas -- selling supplies domestically at one-fifth the rate
of international sales. The Europeans want the indirect subsidies to end. A
Russia that uses energy as a tool to pressure rivals -- particularly if
those rivals are EU members -- while maintaining artificially cheap prices
at home will generate considerable discomfort in Europe.
At this
point, it is impossible to trace all of the potential ripples from changes
now under way in Moscow. But what is clear is that, with the rise of
Medvedev and Ivanov, Russia is gaining two leaders who both understand some
of the roots of Russia's current weakness, and who have demonstrated an
ability to think outside the traditional Russian box.
Their
ascendance indicates a creeping re-evaluation of Russia's position. It is a
change that will manifest in all of Russia's relations -- particularly in
areas where the Russian position previously has been driven by hopes or
fears rather than cool, pragmatic calculations.
Send questions or comments on this article to analysis@stratfor.com.
09:55 Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this
11/16/2005
Elizabeth Edwards is Disappointed
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11/14/2005
Original Website Critical of Activa Holdings
Over at tdaxp I wrote about Activa Holdings, which apparently is the NationMaster of Canada. They sued a Canadian woman for a critical website. Because of all the traffic it has been taken down, but here is a copy of it. Hat-tip to Robert Douglass for a the backup copy:
Environmental and Labor Law Infringements in Waterloo Region
November 3rd 2005
Today I have spent a fair bit of time with various individuals since word of this legal action came out. I've contacted ministries, local political reps and the media to let them know of the situation in order to bring to light the plight of our construction workers, our public's safety and the need to apply enforcement measures to protect them all.
I hope this action helps to facilitate actions to help resolve these issues. Before I could not afford a lawyer but now I could qualify for legal aid. I look forward to bringing this issue to a judge.
Louisette Lanteigne, Waterloo Ont.
Getting sued in Waterloo - November 3rd, 2005
This is a quote from the Statement of Claim
"the malicious, high-handed and arrogant conduct of the Defendant warrants an award of punitive or exemplary damages to ensure that the Defendant is appropriately punished for her conduct and deterred from such conduct in the future."
I am getting sued for this website which I built to facilitate the reporting of environmental and labour law infringements. Greg Murdoch of Sorbora Law office served me the papers last night saying that Activa wants to sue me for for $2,000,000 regarding defamation.
They want $500,000 general damages, $500,000 General damages$500,000 special damages and $500,000 punitive damages with prejudgement and post-judgement interest on the aforesaid amounts.
They want an interlocutory injunction restraining me from further broadcasting regarding Activa
They want an Order directing me to remove the infringement website.
An order requiring me to preserve all documents and evidence related to the matter
Cost of this action on a substantial indemnity basis
Such further and other relief as this Honorable Court deems just.
( J.Greg Murdoch of Sorbara Law Office)
I want very much to bring this issue infront of a judge and I was actually hoping that an injunction would facilitate that. I wasn't counting on a $2,000,000 threat to go with that but if necessary, I will proceed with years of documentations and photos to back me up. If anybody wants to help or if anybody knows of a lawyer willing to help me counter sue, feel free to contact me.
Louisette Lanteigne,700 Star Flower Ave, Waterloo Ont. N2V 2L2
(519)885-7619
On Saturday April 16th 2005, an environmental spill was reported to the Waterloo Regional Environmental Enforcement Services after I spotted multiple leaks of diesel fuel and oil at an area construction site located near the storm management pond at the corner of Bleams and Fisher Hallman in Kitchener.
I have been reporting such infringements by various companies to both the Ministry of Labor, the Ministry of the Environment as well as to Waterloo City Council and the media over the past 4 years. The city's response has always been quick and effective to address the immediate situations and they had given developers warnings but after a week or so, the sites would fall often fall back to unsafe standards again.
I spotted similar spills during the construction of my own subdivision of Columbia Forest in Waterloo years ago as well as in the neighboring subdivision of Laurel Creek Village in Waterloo. In all the following situations I have documented, the infringements took place in the area of the Waterloo aquifer or near storm management ponds. I am concerned that such polluting will pose a direct risk to the region's drinking water. I have witnessed unharnessed roofers in Columbia Forest, Clair Hills, Laurelwood Village and in Kitchener at the Laurentian Village subdivisions both before and after I went to city council and the Ministry of Labor. This is in direct violation of existing Labor laws. This site is created to provide the public with the actual photos of what I saw so that we can all see and learn how best to proceed with this situation. All the photos and contents of this website are free for anyone to use.
Yours sincerely,
Louisette Lanteigne
Waterloo OntarioThursday October 13th, 2005
At 12:10 pm, I contacted Sorbara Law office to speak with Gred Murdoch regarding Activa. He wasn't in his office so I left a message saying if he wanted to speak to me, feel free to contact me at my home.
He never returned my call.
Today (Sept 16th)I recieved a "Notice of Alleged Libel in a Broadcast" refering to the webpage that you are currently reading.
This notice came from Activa Holdings Inc. via their lawyer J.Greg Murdoch of Sorbara, Schumacher, McCann LLP.
Allow me to clairify once again, this website is designed to facilitate the reporting of labour and environmental law infringements to municipal, provincial and federal officials and to try to educate the public on the subject of safety so they can also make their own reports if necessary. In order to place the reports and to illustrate the existing situations I have to mention where I saw the infringements and what companies are involved. It's that simple.
I don't make any money doing this and I have no motive to want to do this other than a deep concern for community safety. Ideally I would love to have nothing to report on because that would mean there isn't a problem but the truth is, we need enforcement.
Unless I see an injunction from a judge, this website stays.
October 4th 2005
Things are not doing so good in Laurentian Village in Kitchener. Behind the Prosperty Homes trailer located on Henhoeffer Crescent and Activa, I saw a suspicious looking diesel tank. I took a closer look and saw it was intentionally supported on a pile of scrap wood on a tilt. That's when I noticed the rubber hose. The hose was being used to syphon the diesel fuel and below it was evidence of a spill. The area smelled strong and the ground was saturated.
I saw many unharnessed roofers and dozens of workers without hard hats actively working on site. This one unharnessed roofer was quite a site to see. The yellow cable in the roof photos is the extention cord for the nail gun this fella was using while working on a roof of the house at 23 Big Springs Court. He squatted down on the wood of the roof and slid down it like a slide.
Activa is the developer of this site. They are supposed to be responsible for the environmental and labour law compliance. I contacted the Ministry of the Environment, the Ministery of Labour and the TSSA about this one.
Currently Activa is trying to get a zoning change so they can build a new subdivision in Vista Hills in Waterloo directly over 1% of the Waterloo Moraine's recharge area. They have built over the moraine in my subdivision of Columbia Forest and in Laurel Creek Village and in both cases, I have photographed and reported leaks of diesel and oil and have reported numerous labour and environmental law infringements.
I have recently joined up with the Citizens for the Protection of the Waterloo Moraine in an effort to raise public awareness on the issue of ground source water protection. I want to see the Waterloo Moraine protected with the same legislation as the Oak Ridges Moraine. Our moraine provides 300,000 people with ground source drinking water. We're the largest region in North America dependant on ground water. This moraine is one of the major sources for the Grand River and that is the only source of drinking water for Brantford, Brent County and Six Nations.
Right now the Vista Hills land is up for rezoning. Ironically, this subdivision is already featured in an area phone book and it was on a free commercial map that was distributed to area homes. Even real estate guides have featured the completed Vista Hills subdivision on their maps for four years. The truth is the land is still agricultural. If the rezoning to residential takes place before the moraine is protected this subdivision will be built.
I ask both the Ministry of the Environment and the Ministry of Labour to please step in and see what you can do in regards to protecting our groundwater from Activa. We know their history. The citizens of Waterloo Region simply cannot afford the risk.
September 27th 2005I recieved a letter from the Minister of Labour Steve Peters updating us on the current situation in Waterloo. He said the use of safety harnesses and fall protection especially in the roofing/siding industry remains top priority for the Ministry of Labour's construction inspectors. Between June 14-Mid September, construction inspectors in the Region of Waterloo have investigated 95 complaints, issued 350 orders and initiated 18 more prosecutions in the course of their inspection and enforcement activities.
In regards to the photos I took of the beer bottles on the construction site at Laurel Creek, he said alcohol consumption on construction projects is enforced under the federal Criminal Code by local municipal police officers. Construction inspectors who encounter this usually refer it immediately to police.
Thank You to Minister Peters and all the hard working men and women with the Region of Waterloo's Ministry of Labour office for their wonderful work in helping to keep our workers safe.
My heartfelt thanks to each of you!
September 23rd 2005The KW record published that an 8 year old boy was killed in Montreal by falling wooden pallets on an unfenced Construction site and charges may be laid against the owners of the site.
This story affected me deeply on a personal level. I have seen children making forts out of pressure treated lumber and brick quite often in the lot behind my house from May 2000 til 2003. This was located beside the only completed parkette in our subdivision.
In one incident, I watched a large group of unsupervised kids, around 12 of them between the ages of 5-12 years old, make a brick fort with a plywood roof and they put a BBQ inside that they tried to light it. They were jumping on the rooftop. I called the police immediately and this resulted in the relocation of the debris to a fenced in area away from residents and children. After that I still saw kids and parents taking scraps from construction areas to use as building blocks for little ones.
Parents should be aware that Pressure Treated wood is not safe. It is contains many chemicals including arsenic and it's a known carcinogen. If you or your child handles this wood, immediately wash your hands. For more information regarding this known toxin, visit here.
I have seen kids playing in a stagnant pond of water that was 4ft deep. It was filled with building debris including paint cans, fiberglass insulation, pressure treated wood, oil residue and tadpoles. This area located over the Waterloo recharge that gathers our ground source drinking water.
"Treated wood should not be used where it may come into direct or indirect contact with drinking water, except for uses involving incidental contact such as docks and bridges"
US Environmental Protection AgencyThis body of water stood unchanged for three years until area residents went to the city to clean it up. This was in Columbia Forest Subdivision on White Elm Blvd. Below is the photo of this area as it stood for three from the time I moved in. This "Lake" that was over 40 ft. wide. Residents thought it was a storm management pond. Beside it is a photo of the sludge and tadpoles that swam in it. Kids always came here to catch the tadpoles. The next three shots featured the basic condition of our area parkettes. There were no completed parkets in our subdivision for over 2 years after residents moved in.
. On September 18th as I was inspecting Laurel Creek Subdivision and witnessed two boys around 8 or 9 years old making a fort with building debris. Both the boys were carting off a workhorse together than they gathered pressure treated wood scraps to make the fort.
Parents in new subdivisions under construction should make sure their child is supervised when they play outdoors. Know the dangers and speak to kids about it.If building debris has been found in the vacinity of a children's park or unsafely stored in an area where children play, please contact the builder or developer ASAP. If they don't respond, call the police. A child's life could depend on it.
September 18th 2005I got a new digital camera today and it took me less than a half an hour to find all sorts of infringements in the Laurel Creek Subdivision.
At 5:52pm I spotted two separate diesel tanks that were unlocked. This is in direct violation of existing Labor laws. The Waterloo Fire Prevention Unit and the Technical Standards and Safety Authority were both contacted in regards to this as well as the Ministry of Labor. One of the tanks was located in lot 150 and the other was located beside Eastforest Home's Trailer.
At 5:35 I spotted the oil spill located at lot 37, civic road 386 Red Osier. It was reported to the Ministry of the Environment's Emergency Spills Services and it was actually cleaned up by a fella who worked for the City of Waterloo. The spill was right across the street from an ESPA forest and this location is over the recharge for our City's groundwater supply that we drink from. There is a trail made by the city, but I witnessed 5 people in total who decided to take a stroll through the forests instead. One went with their dog. I also heard the gunshots of area hunters.
At 5:47 I spotted a high level of debris that has obviously been left uncleaned for a rather long time located at 586 Violet St. There is also evidence of construction workers drinking on the job at this location. A set of two beer bottles was found beside a home being built by Eastforest Homes. There was only an empty lot beside this area so it wasn't from the neighbours. The large beer bottle was found on the other side of the same house half buried with in building debris. In the back yard there was paint spattered on the ground in several spots but I didn't get a photo of that.. In the front yard of this home lay the pile of bricks as seen in the photo below. The last photo just shows the rubbish on lot 226 where Decora builds. There really is no need for area residents to have to put up with this sort of filth.
August 22 2005
Today I recieved an email from a person who's home was built in a Waterloo subdivision. I will not disclose the identity of this person but I have passed this to the MOE and MOL.
"They stored a leaky dozer in the foundation of my building prior to erecting the frame. I was unsuccessful at getting the spill cleaned up… as they poured cement over it to cover it up (I have pictures). So my house sits upon plume of gas and oil. I am sure the vapours escape into the air I breathe everyday. I also have pictures of contractors drinking beer as they build the interior of my house."
July 27th 2005New Minister of Labor Steve Peters contacted me via letter to extend support for my efforts in reporting labour law infringements. He said the Ministry of Labor does not have enough inspectors to monitor all construction activities however complaints can be made by workers and the public to ministry inspectors who will then investigate, enforce and prosecute as needed.
To make a complaint or to voice a concern, please call the Occupational Health and Safety Call Center at 1-877-202-0008.( The Ministry will honour all requests for Anonymity)I'd like to take this time to welcome Mr.Steve Peters as our new Minister of Labor and to thank him for caring about our KW workers!
I'd like to also welcome Laurel Broten as our new Minister of Labor! (Thanks for the letter!)
June 24th 2005There are unconfirmed reports of a Safety Inspector being beaten at 146 Purple Sage in Laurentian Forest. The incident involved an assault by a frame builder who was arrested by the Waterloo Regional Police. I have inquired with police service and they can't disclose any details at this time. If I hear anymore regarding this incident, I will update you on this.
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Hard Hats protect you from Heat Stress. Learn the facts, wear the hat.
June 17th 2005
I recieved a letter today from Minister of Labor Chris Bentley. He wrote "I understand that several of your safety related complaints to the Waterloo Ministry of Labor Office have been followed up, written orders have been issued and inspectors have initiated prosecutions. In fact since April 1 2005 in the KW area, inspectors have launched 20 new prosecutions."
One hundred new enforcement officers have been hired this year and one hundred more will be hired within the next year. He thanks me for contacting the government regarding these issues and he forwarded a copy of this letter to Gerrard Kennedy the Ministry of Education.
June 9th 2005The local situation in regards to work place safety on area construction sites is growing worse in this hot weather. Today, I spotted workers on various sites throughout KW working without harnesses, hard hats or even shirts for that matter. Workers without hard hats and harnesses were spotted in Mannheim Estates and Laurentian Village in Kitchener as well as in the Clair Creek subdivision in Waterloo as seen in the photo below.
The largest number of infringements I saw was in the Forest Gate Subdivision off Erbsville Rd. in Waterloo. This small subdivision is located just across the street from where Wideman Rd. meets Erbsville. Here I spotted many brick layers and construction workers working without hard hats. I saw around 27-30 of them in total. Below are some photos of what I saw. This subdivision was being used as a Government of Canada Youth Training Strategy program in conjunction with the Waterloo District School Board. Basically it's an area where co-op training of high school kids takes place to give them on the job experience. There wasn't a class here at the time I took these photos however it was still unsettling to know that there are a number of young summer workers here.
When I called the local Labor office to make a file a formal complaint, the office gave me this number in Hamilton to call. When I tried to file a complaint they wouldn't let me because I required an address. I drove back to the site to get it. When I arrived to the site I realized there were no signs indicating street names or even the name of the subdivision itself. I went to a man who appeared to look like a site manager with clip board in hand. I asked him if he could give me the name of the street we were on. He looked at me and said, "Well it doesn't have a name yet." I asked him if he could tell me the name of the subdivision we were in. He said they don't like to disclose this information because there are people taking pictures who are causing some trouble." I took that as a hint that he knew me from the articles in the paper or otherwise. I got no help from him so I had to go to the city's development services to find my answer. The subdivision is Forest Gate and the street we were on is Forest Gate Crescent.
The Ontario Buiding Code Act requires that a copy of the building permit be posted in a conspicuous location. This copy of the permit would identify the lot number, the Registered Plan number, as well as the permit number.
May 18th 2005Today I recieved a letter from the Honorable Leona Dombrowski, Minister of the Environment. She wrote "The advocacy on behalf of your neighbourhood is commendable and I encourage you to contact the ministry at one of the two aforementioned numbers to report any further incidents." She provided me with the list of contact numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
I encourage all residents to record this information for your own use should you spot any infringements in your area.
There was an interesting article published in the Waterloo Chronical on May 18th written by Michael Hiemstra who brought to light the issue of using the web as a vehicle to protests. I agreed with many of his arguments and in response, I would like to present this explaination as to why I brought this information online.
May 17th
I spoke at the Waterloo City Council on May 16th and presented the following speech at the Waterloo Regional Council regarding the planning of the designation of the Environmentally Sensitive Landscape (ESL). I voiced concerns regarding some of the ongoing infringements by our area construction companies and have requested that our region hire a designated officer to patrol area construction sites for both labor and environmental infringements on an ongoing basis. With the ESL, we will preserve the source of our water but if we don't enforce environmental standards throughout the region it may still result in the contamination of our drinking water.
Friday May 13th 2005
Back to bad habbits in Laurel Creek subdivision. This photo taken on Buttercup Court features two workers working on a house without hard hats and one fella is in shorts. This took place at 9:45 am.
At another area construction site, unharnessed roofers and workers without hard hats were spotted working in the vacinity of high school students who were part of a federal Youth Training Program. Students were here at the time of the infringements that I saw. This incident was reported to the Ministry of Labor. The School Board was contacted and they quickly responded to ratify the situation. It's such ashame that our area builders were not better examples for these kids. This took place at the Forest Gate subdivision and was reported to the Ministry of Labor as well as the board of education and the ministry of education.
Sunday May 1stAt Laurel Creek Village, the diesel tank is now properly covered with a water proof cover to prevent possible overflow of fuels. Sites in both Clair Hills and Laurel Creek Village appear much cleaner, with the propane tanks properly stored away. It makes for a much nicer view for new home buyers and it's much safer for area residents too. I hope this becomes a long term practice. It's good to see!
Sorbara Law had issued a letter in regards to this website that was mailed April 19th. I read their letter and I believe that they saw my website during a transition period when I was adding new information regarding a fuel spill on Bleams Road. The website had implied that the April 16th spill was involving Activa Holdings but this was incorrect. I did speak with the authorities regarding the incident and made the correct changes on April 19th around noon and from that point on, everything on the website was 100% accurate. All the incidents on the website have been inspected by the City of Waterloo and the Region's Environmental Enforcement Services and the Ministry of Labor.
Wednesday April 20th
On April 19th the KW Record reported that a construction worker fell 9 meters off a roof and injured his back. His name was not released but the incident took place on April 18th before 10 am on Forest Gate Crescent near Erbsville Rd. In spite of this incident these are the photos of what I saw on April 20th in the Laurel Creek Village subdivision.This area is being developed by Activa.
I took these photos on my way home from the Ministry of Labor office. I went to the Ministry to mention that I had previously seen roofers unharnessed working off of Erbsville Rd and I tried to address this issue to City Council and the Labor Ministry before the incident of the roofer falling happened. They told me to call this phone number.(1-877-202-0008) On the way home I saw these infringements and took the photos. When I got home I called the number and mentioned the workers in the rain. The phone attendant told me to contact Laurel Pautler from the local Ministry of Labor office. I phoned her and filed a formal complaint via phone regarding this. I mentioned to her about the spill that took place on April 16th and she assured me if the Regional Environmental Enforcement office finds anything labor related, they would contact her office about it. I am unaware if this has been done so to date I have not filed a formal complaint to the Labor Ministry regarding the Kitchener spill on April 16th, but they are aware of the situation and will be notified of the website for their own reference. I will notify the Environmental Enforcement Services to forward any info regarding possible labor infringements to the Ministry of Labor. The date and time on on these photos is correct..
The Center to Protect Workers Rights (CPWR) says that roofers have the fifth-highest work-related death rate in construction, 29.9 deaths per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers, about twice the average for all construction of 15.2. About 50 roofers are killed on the job each year, most by falls (chart 1). The information in government reports suggests that inadequate fall protection is responsible for most of the fatal falls.
Saturday April 16th 2005
This incident was seen at approximately 4pm on April 16th as I drove by the Laurentian Village subdivision off of Bleams and Fisher Hallman. The infringements I witnessed were located on the west side of the storm water management pond. I went home and reported the incidents to the Waterloo Regional Environmental Service and returned to the site at approximately 8pm to take these photos. (The date setting on my camera was not set properly).
When I first spotted the site, all the gas and oil containment units were unlocked. This was in direct violation of Ministry of Labor safety laws. At the time I took these photos, someone had visited and placed locks on all the tanks. I used my shoe to help assist in visualizing the size of the spills. The dark spots are oil while the larger spills are diesel. In the image with the blue water pump, this was located right beside the water. Here are the photos of what I saw. To see the larger image, just click on the small photos.
An article written by Philip Jalsevac, regarding this spill, was published in the KW Record on Thursday April 21st. In it, Thomas Schmidt, the region's commissioner of transportation and environmental services, said the Ministry of the Environment was advised of the spill but said "they wouldn't respond to something like this because it was relatively insignificant." He went on to say "Clearly, we want people to manage their site appropriately and to make sure they don't spill these types of materials and to make sure they clean them up." He also added, "We're not out there all the time. If people see spills, it's absolutely appropriate to call in and get it dealt with."
Based on what the Environmental Services Department saw it didn't look too bad but after the article I contacted Mr. Schmidt about this.
New info regarding the April 16th spill
April 25th 2004
Here are some photos taken directly across the street from Sir John A MacDonald School on Laurel Creek Drive in the Laurel Village subdivision. These photos were taken on Saturday April 25th 2004 at 5:30 pm after the Emergency Spills officer arrived. I saw this and called them immediately.
The first photo is an oil spill. The other photos are in regards to the leaky diesel tank. The tank was being stored in a tub to help contain the leak. By law the tub must be covered by a tarp to protect the fluids from possible overflow from snow and rain. The handle and cap of the tank should be locked. I had reported this to the Environmental Spills officer. He described this situation as "Very bad". With him present, I took the photos of me holding the gas nozzle so I could show this situation to Waterloo City Council. There was two inches of loose fuel in the tub at the time I took these photos. Upon closer inspection, I noticed that the cap was off the base of the tub allowing for the diesel fuel to leak onto the ground. You can see the 2-3 inch groove left in the dirt from where the fuels had escaped onto the ground. I brought this to the attention of Waterloo City Council and they quickly responded by making Activa remove all the contaminated soil. This area is located on the Waterloo aquifer which recharges our groundwater.
Winter 2005
The following photos illustrate the continued environmental and labor law infringements in Laurel Creek Village (Columbia Forest II) in the winter of 2005. The tanks are still unlocked and uncovered from snow and rain. As you can see the levels of the fuel/water mix in the tank is quite high and close to the overflow levels. I also witnessed the unsafe storage of propane tanks throughout the subdivision. At this point I filed my first formal complaints to the Ministry of the Environment as well as the Ministry of Labor for unsafe storage of fuels. I witnessed many roofers working without their harnesses for years during the construction of my subdivision and area subdivisions along Erbsville Rd. and in Kitchener. This is something I witnessed on a daily basis just driving around my area and to my husband's work. It is a developer's legal responsibility to maintain the safety and environmental standards on their development sites. Their duty is to oversee the actions of the various housing companies and monitor that standards are being met. Currently, the city and the ministers only step in when formal complaints are made but without a delegated officer doing the inspections, it doesn't get reported. Housing inspectors cannot make reports of this nature because it isn't in their jurisdiction to do so.
What we need is a dedicated person from the region or province that is qualified to police both the environmental and safety laws on area construction sites on a regular basis because it is obvious that the area Development companies are not doing their job.
I went to the media at this point and did interviews with both the KW Record and the Waterloo Chronicle in regards to the infringements I saw. The Article for the Chronicle was titled. "Developers Negligence Poses Many Risks" and it was written by Bob Vrbanac and published on Wednesday March 23 2005. The Record's story was called "Put Environment and Safety First, Developers Told written by Bob Burtt and published on March 29 2005.
I spoke to Waterloo City Council and a representative from Eastforest Homes in regards the infringements. In regards to the unharnessed roofers the policy for Eastforest homes is "If a worker is caught without their harness, we will send them home immediately. It is not acceptable."
Background Info
I have gone to Waterloo City Council in regards to various environmental infringements during the creation of my subdivision of Columbia Forest. We had a standing body of water at the base of White Elm over 4ft deep. It was filled with insulation, building materials and even tadpoles because this "Lake" as residents called it, was here for over a year. The area of the lake was so long we all just assumed it was a storm management pond of some sort. This area was not fenced at all and it was located directly across the street from the only completed kiddy park we had. I spent most of my summers telling kids to get away from the water. Kids loved to walk in the water, pitch rocks in it and catch the tadpoles. When I told Waterloo City Council they drained this water immediately.
Beside the children's park on the corner of Butternut and White Elm, we had loose brick, plywood and piles of brick stored directly beside the park. Again I spent hours and hours telling children to get away from the building materials. The local children used to make forts with the brick and roof it with the scraps of plywood. On one occasion they actually built a BBQ inside one of the forts. When I notified the city all the building debris was removed for the sake of community safety.
I was curious so I went to Laurel Village to inspect the new housing area to see if the same things were being repeated. I decided to speak to one of the folks who were outside with their three year old child. The yard was not completed and there was debris, including a half buried 2 by 4 sticking out of their yard with rusty nails in it. I asked the folks how long their yard has been this way. They said for about a year. The condition of the yard was so poor they couldn't allow their child to play outside at all. They were in the same position I was when I moved into my new subdivision. New home owners are often not aware of their rights. They don't know that they don't have to live with hazardous debris surrounding them. They are entitled to safe green spaces for their children to play in. They don't have to put up with environmental spills or hazards that can put their children at risk.
Here are just some of the speeches and letters that I presented to various people in regards to these infringements.
Waterloo City Council Apr.2004 PresentationWaterloo City Council March 2005 Presentation
Regarding West Side District Plan (Letter)Letter to Environment Minister
If you spot Infringements, here are the folks to contact.
When making a report, please have the address, date, time, the subdivision name and the name of the company if possible.
To report incidents of water pollution, spills and illegal waste disposal as they are occuring or soon after contact: Ms. Tina Dufresne at the Ministry of the Environment (Guelph Office) toll free at 1-800-265-8658 during normal business hours or Ministry of Environment's Spills Action Center (24 hours) at 1-800-268-6060
To report unsafe working conditions including unharnessed roofers & labor law infringements contact: Ministry of Labor Office 1-877-202-0008. (anonymity will be protected)
To report incidents of unsafe fuel or propane tank storage please notify these two safety authorities: The Technical Standards and Safety Authority (TSSA) at 1-877-682-8772
The Fire Prevention Division of the Waterloo Fire Department at 884-2121 for Waterloo,741-2495 for Kitchener or 621-0754 for Cambridge.
To report drinking from workers on construction sites, contact your local police Department immediately.
If you think your community is dealing with unsafe storage of building debris or potential safety hazards please don't hesitate to contact your local ward rep and your city's development services department. They can make a difference.
07:45 Posted in SLAPP | Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this
11/13/2005
SLAPP news for Sunday, November 13, 2005
Alert for: slapp
Ontario
mom faces $2M libel suit over website
CTV.ca
- Canada
... is "just a way of SLAPPing me.".
SLAPP stands for Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Participation.
"The plaintiff's goal in a SLAPP ...
See all stories on this topic
Anti-SLAPP
Statute May Provide for Attorneys Fees in Trade Secret ...
Mondaq News Alerts - World
...
illegally obtained material deemed "privileged and confidential"
and "attorney work product" is protected from suit by California's
anti-SLAPP provision if ...
Are
politicians too SLAPP happy?
Forest
Park Review - Oak Park,IL,USA
... After reading the headline
my first reaction was that this is a SLAPP suit. SLAPP is
an acronym for Strategic Lawsuit Against Public Participation. ...
Save
the right to criticize
Philadelphia
Inquirer - Philadelphia,PA,USA
... Camille George (D.,
Clearfield) that would broaden the scope of the state's anti-SLAPP
law. SLAPP stands for Strategic Lawsuit Against Public Participation.
...
Judge
tosses haunted house owner's 'Amityville' defamation suit
CourtTV - New York,NY,USA
...
defendants, saying that the film was a work of fiction protected under
the First Amendment, and that it fell within California's anti-SLAPP
(Strategic Lawsuits ...
$1.026
million verdict divvies blame to two doctors
Kansas City Star - MO,USA
... So it's noteworthy
when defendants in a SLAPP slap back and even more noteworthy when
they win. Especially when they win big time. ...
Ruling
is historic
McCook Daily Gazette
- McCook,Nebraska,USA
We are talking about Nebraska's first
SLAPP-Back case, which resulted in a Keith County jury's finding
of intimidation against Furnas County Farms, Sand ...
Thompson
not being investigated over Penny Arcade feud...yet
GameSpot - USA
... happy result of that
is that The Bar's insurance carrier had to pay me money damages for
The Bar's having taken the bait offered by the SLAPP bar complainants.
...
An
Open Letter To The Missouri City Mayor
FortBendNow
- Richmond,TX,USA
... As my family's funds are drained,
as targets defending in this "SLAPP" (Strategic Lawsuit Against
Public Participation) case by your Houston backers ...
Senator
Clinton Wins a Round In Coast Court
New
York Sun (subscription) - New York,NY,USA
... judges,
who heard arguments in Paul's civil suit last Friday, ruled that the
trial judge misinterpreted one provision of the so-called anti-Slapp
law, under ...
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11/08/2005
Stratfor Geopolitical Intelligence Report
A Question of Integration
By George FriedmanFor more than a week, France has been torn
by riots that have been, for the most part, concentrated in the poorer
suburbs of Paris. The rioters essentially have been immigrants -- or the
children or grandchildren of immigrants -- most of whom had come to France
from its former colonies. They are, in many cases, French citizens by right
of empire. But what is not clear is whether they ever became, in the fullest
sense of the word, French.
And in that question rests an issue that
could define European -- and world -- history in the 21st
century.
Every country has, from time to time, social unrest. This
unrest frequently becomes violent, but that is not necessarily defining. The
student uprisings around the world in the 1960s had, in retrospect, little
lasting significance, whereas the riots by black Americans during the same
period were of enormous importance -- symptomatic of a profound tension
within American society. The issue with the French riots is to identify the
degree to which they are, or will become, historically
significant.
For the most part, the rioters have been citizens of
France. But to a great extent, they are not regarded as French. This is not
rooted necessarily in racism, although that is not an incidental phenomenon.
Rather, it is rooted in the nature of the French nation and, indeed, in that
of the European nation-state and European democracy -- an experience that
distinguishes Europe from many other regions of the world.
The notion
of the European nation stands in opposition to the multinational empires that
dominated Europe between the 17th and 20th centuries. These were not only
anti-democratic, dynastic entities, but they were also transnational. The
idea of national self-determination as the root of modern democracy depended
first on the recognition of the nation as a morally significant category. Why
should a nation be permitted to determine its own fate unless the nation was
of fundamental importance? Thus, in Europe, the concept of democracy and the
concept of the nation developed together.
The guiding principle was
that every nation had a right to determine its own fate. All of the nations
whose identities had been submerged within the great European empires were
encouraged to reassert their historical identities through democratic
institutions. As the empires collapsed, the submerged nations re-emerged --
from Ireland to Slovakia, from Macedonia to Estonia. This process of
devolution was, in a certain sense, endless: It has encompassed, for
instance, not only the restoration or establishment of sovereignty to the
European powers' colonial holdings in places like Africa or Latin America,
but pressure from groups within the territorial borders of those recognized
powers -- such as the Basques in Spain -- that their national identity be
recognized and their right to democratic self-determination be accepted.
Europe's definition of a nation was less than crisply clear. In general,
it assumed a geographic and cultural base. It was a group of people living
in a fairly defined area, sharing a language, a history, a set of values
and, in the end, a self-concept: A Frenchman knew himself to be a Frenchman
and was known by other Frenchmen to be French. If this appears to be a
little circular, it is -- and it demonstrates the limits of logic, for this
definition of nationhood worked well in practice. It also could wander off
into the near-mysticism of romantic nationalism and, at times, into vicious
xenophobia.
The European definition of the nation poses an obvious
challenge. Europe has celebrated national self-determination among all
principles, and adhered to a theory of the nation that was forged in the
battle with dynastic empires. At the heart of its theory of nationalism is
the concept that the nation -- national identity -- is something to which
one is born. Ideally, every person should be a part of one nation, and his
citizenship should coincide with that.
But this is, of course, not
always the case. What does one do with the foreigner who comes to your
country and wants to be a citizen, for example? Take it a step further: What
happens when a foreigner comes to your country and wants not only to be a
citizen, but to become part of your nation? It is, of course, difficult to
change identity. Citizenship can be granted. National identity is another
matter.
Contrast this with the United States, Canada or Australia --
three examples where alternative theories of nationhood have been pursued.
If being French or German is rooted in birth, being an American, Canadian or
Australian is rooted in choice. The nation can choose who it wants as a
citizen, and the immigrant can choose to become a citizen. Citizenship
connotes nationality. More important, all of these countries, which were
founded on immigration, have created powerful engines designed to assimilate
the immigrants over generations. It would not be unreasonable to say that
these countries created their theory of nationhood around the practice of
migration and assimilation. It is not that the process is not painful on all
sides, but there is no theoretical bar to the idea of anyone becoming, for
example, an American -- whereas there is a theoretical hurdle to the idea of
elective nationalism in Europe.
This obstacle has been compounded by
the European imperial experience. France was born of a nationalist impulse,
but the nationalism was made compatible with imperialism. France created a
massive empire in the 19th century. And as imperialism collided with the
French revolutionary tradition, the French had to figure out how to
reconcile national self-determination with imperialism. One solution was to
make a country like Algeria part of France. In effect, the definition of the
French nation was expanded to incorporate wildly different nationalities. It
left French-speaking enclaves throughout the world, as well as millions of
citoyens who were not French by either culture or history. And it led
to waves of immigrants from the former francophone colonies becoming citizens
of France without being French.
Adding to this difficulty, the
Europeans erected a new multinational entity, the European Union, that was
supposed to resurrect the benefits of the old dynastic empires without
undermining nationalism. The EU is an experiment in economic cooperation and
the suppression of nationalist conflicts, yet one that does not suppress the
nations that created it. The Union both recognizes the nation and is
indifferent to it. Its immigration policy and the European concept of the
nation are deeply at odds.
The results of all of this can be seen in
the current riots in France. As evident from this analysis, the riots are far
from a trivial event. These have involved, by and large, French citizens
expressing dissatisfaction with their condition in life. Their condition
stems, to some degree, from the fact that it is one thing to become a French
citizen and quite another to become a Frenchman. Nor is this uniquely a
French problem: The issue of immigrant assimilation in Europe is a fault
line that, under sufficient stress and circumstances, can rip Europe apart.
Europe's right-wing parties, and opposition to the EU in Europe, are both
driven to a large extent by the immigrant issue.
All societies have
problems with immigration. In the United States, there currently is deep
concern about the illegal movement of Mexican immigrants across the border.
There is concern about the illegality and about the changing demographic
characteristics of the United States. But there is no serious movement in the
United States interested in halting all immigration. There is a management
issue, but in the end, the United States is perpetually changed by
immigrants and the immigrants, even more, are changed by the United States.
Consider what once was said about the Irish, Italians or Japanese to get a
sense of this.
The United States, and a few other nations, are
configured to manage and profit from immigration. Their definition of
nationhood not only is compatible with immigration, but depends on it. The
European states are not configured to deal with immigration and have a
definition of nationhood that is, in fundamental ways, incompatible with
immigration. Put simply, the Europeans could never quite figure out how to
reconcile their empires with their principles, and now can't quite figure
out how to reconcile the migrations that resulted from the collapse of their
empires with their theory of nationalism. Assimilation is not impossible, but
it is enormously more difficult than in countries that subscribe to the
American model.
This poses a tremendous economic problem for the
Europeans -- and another economic problem is the last thing they need.
Europe, like the rest of the advanced industrial world, has an aging
population. Over the past generation, there has been a profound shift in
reproductive patterns in the developed world. The number of births is
declining. People are also living to an older age. Therefore, the question
is, how do you sustain economic growth when your population is stable or
contracting?
The American answer is relatively straightforward:
immigration. Shortages of engineers or scientists? No problem. Import them
from India or China, give them advanced education in the United States, keep
them there. Their children will be assimilated. Is more menial labor needed?
Also not a problem. Workers from Mexico and Central American states are
readily available, on a number of terms, legal and illegal. Their children
too can be assimilated.
Of course, there have been frictions over
immigrants in the United States from the beginning. But there is also a
roadmap to assimilation and utilization of immigrants -- it is well-known
territory that does not collide with any major cultural taboos. In short,
the United States, Australia and Canada have excellent systems for managing
and reversing population contractions, which is an underpinning of economic
strength. The Europeans -- like the Japanese and others -- do
not.
The problem of assimilating immigrants in these countries is
quite difficult. It is not simply an institutional problem: A new white
paper from Brussels will not solve the issue. It is a problem deeply rooted
in European history and liberalism. The European theory of democracy rests
on a theory of nationalism that makes integration and assimilation
difficult. It can be done, but only with great pain.
It is not
coincidental, therefore, that the rates of immigration to European states
are rather low in comparison to those of the more dynamic settler-based
states. This also places the Europeans at a serious economic disadvantage to
the immigrant-based societies. The United States or Canada can mitigate the
effects of population shortages with relative ease. The influx of new
workers relieves labor market pressures -- encouraging sustained
low-inflation economic growth -- and the relative youth of immigrants not
only allows for steady population growth but also helps to keep pension
outlays manageable. In contrast, the European ideal of nationality almost
eliminates this failsafe -- so that while, as a whole, Europe's population
is both aging and shrinking, the dearth of young immigrant workers spins its
pension commitments out of control.
These are the issues that, over
the next few generations, may begin to define the real global divide --
which will be not only between rich and poor nations, but between the rich
nations that cannot cope with declining populations and the rich nations
that can.
Send questions or comments on this article to analysis@stratfor.com.
13:43 Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this
11/06/2005
Junk NationMaster
As recorded at SimonWorld, NationMaster sent me a series of threatening emails over a negative review. I offered to take down my negative review, but then Nation Master demanded I remove two other posts as well: one criticizing a former employee and the other an update to the story. While JunkPolitics normally archives junk political email, I am linking to the exchange because it is junk corporate harrasment.
- Steinmetz-tdaxp #1
- tdaxp-Steinmetz #1
- Steinmetz-tdaxp #2
- tdaxp-Steinmetz #2
- Steinmetz-tdaxp #3
- tdaxp-Steinmetz #3
- Steinmetz-tdaxp #4
09:42 Posted in Web | Permalink | Comments (1) | Email this
11/02/2005
Can the Bush Presidency Survive?
The Bush Presidency: Can It Survive?
By George FriedmanLast week, President George W. Bush's
appointee to the Supreme Court, Harriet Miers, withdrew her nomination after
being savaged from all directions. Vice President Dick Cheney's chief of
staff, Lewis Libby, was indicted on a series of charges having to do with
the investigation of a White House leak. And the president of Iran said that
Israel has to be wiped off the face of the map. None of these events, by
themselves, rise to the level of historical significance. But the three
taken together, along with other signs and portents, might well be of
enormous significance.
We have long argued that one of the primary
reasons for the invasion of Iraq was the Bush administration's need to
demonstrate to the world in general and the Muslim world in particular that
the United States not only has the stomach for war, but also can be
decisively victorious. This capacity has not been obvious to anyone,
including Americans, since the Vietnam War. Rightly or wrongly, it had
become an idée fixe that the United States shied away from wars in general
and from potentially extended wars in particular.
Now we are in a
period of warfare when the power of the U.S. president -- due to a variety
of factors -- has become uncertain. And that is no trivial matter to either
the United States or a host of foreign powers.
The Presidency: A
Decisive Force?
In wartime, the power of the U.S. president is
critical. It is the job of a skillful politician in wartime to do whatever
it takes to keep the presidency strong and decisive. And as history shows,
presidents who are able to hold the political center and act decisively--
despite challenges faced in the war or on other political fronts -- will
survive. Franklin D. Roosevelt led the United States through a series of
unmitigated disasters -- surviving more than a year of defeat and confusion
-- because he nurtured confidence among the public and carefully manipulated
situations so as to deflect blame from himself. Adm. Husband Kimmel, the
commander-in-chief of the Pacific region, was fired after Pearl Harbor;
Roosevelt was not.
Conversely, the center did not hold under Lyndon
B. Johnson. His legitimacy and credibility as a warfighting president
collapsed with startling swiftness when his own party turned on him -- and
the opposition, though still supporting the war, never had any confidence in
his warfighting strategy. Roosevelt survived the fall of the Philippines;
Johnson could not even survive the Tet Offensive.
Therefore, the
question that Bush now faces is whether he can hold the center -- whether
his presidency can survive as a decisive
force. Let's define this with some care. Unless he was to be convicted of
high crimes and misdemeanors by the House of Representatives, Bush will serve
as president until January 2009. But there are two kinds of presidents: those
with sufficient power to act unilaterally in foreign affairs -- that is, who
assume they have the political power to speak and act with confidence -- and
those who lack or have lost that ability.
For instance, by the time
of the final North Vietnamese assault, Gerald Ford had no practical military
or diplomatic options left. His political and legal position precluded that:
The center of his presidency was in shambles. Bill Clinton, on the other
hand, retained his military option relative to Yugoslavia in spite of other
political problems. He was able to move from military action to covert
action to diplomatic action at will -- and, in general, without reference to
external forces. He was a free agent. Ford could not control the situation in
Vietnam, whereas Clinton could control the situation in Kosovo, Bosnia and
ultimately in Serbia. The center of Clinton's presidency
held.
Polls and Perceptions: The Fight for the
Right
The question now, therefore, is whether the center of
Bush's presidency will hold or whether he will, for a time or permanently,
lose the ability to act unilaterally in foreign affairs. There have been
many factors influencing the U.S.-jihadist war in general, but the key now
is this: Can Bush still make unilateral decisions? For instance, does he
have the ability to decide whether to bomb Syria? Or attack Iranian nuclear
reactors? Could he withdraw forces from Iraq without appearing to be
capitulating? Can he keep promises to Iraqi factions and credibly threaten
them as well?
Part of the answer lies in foreign perceptions of the
U.S. presidency, which brings us to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's
recent statement on Israel. The
statement was rooted in many things. Some of it has to do with domestic
Iranian politics; some of it is simply the repetition of long-standing
Iranian policy; some of it has to do with the fact that the new president
likes to make bellicose statements. But the single most important factor is
that Iran does not fear the United States quite as much now as it did six
months ago. Words are merely words, but the Iranians were probing for
reaction. That the French condemned the statement was of little interest to
Tehran; whether the Americans condemned it - and, if so, how -- was the key.
The Iranians were taking the measure of American politics. And the response
from Washington, we note, was quite mild in comparison to most other Western
governments.
Bush's popularity rating, after Libby's indictment was
announced, stood at 39 percent, according to a Washington Post-ABC poll.
This is actually pretty good news for Bush, believe it or not. As we
attempted to show in past articles, there is a point of support beyond which
Bush's Republican base could be deemed to be fragmenting, and that is the point at which a presidency becomes
unrecoverable. Bush has been at that point, which we peg -- at the extreme --
at 39 percent, for several weeks now. Polls have been showing him in the 37
percent to 45 percent range, which, given error rates, puts him
realistically in the very low 40s. Bush's support did not bounce back (given
all the issues at stake, a bounce would have been miraculous), but -- and
this is the critical point -- his core has not fragmented.
This is
one reason why Miers, whose nomination to the Supreme Court raised outcries
among Bush's core base of conservatives, had to be ditched fast -- before
the indictments in the Plame
case came out. At this point, Bush must, above all costs, hold his base
solidly. He can't even begin to worry about the center, let alone the left,
if the right deserts him. Miers' appointment raised doubts on the right.
Bush could not be certain what the grand jury would say or who would be
indicted, but he knew there would be indictments. By getting Miers out of
the way, he rallied his base at a moment when they would be the vital -- and
only -- element he could bank on. If the early polls are correct, the move
worked.
This does not necessarily mean, however, that Bush is out of
the woods. The social conservatives are only one of three core constituencies
within the Republican Party. The others are economic conservatives and
businesspeople and, finally, the national security constituency. Miers'
withdrawal shored up support among the social conservatives, and the recent
nomination of Ben Bernanke to be the new chairman of the U.S. Federal
Reserve seems to have delighted the economic conservatives. But the Plame
affair is raising hackles in the third constituency: The national security
core is restive, to say the least.
There are several strands within
this constituency. First, there are the military service members and their
families, who are extremely unhappy with the failure to expand the military
and to halt the frequent and long deployments that active duty, reserve and
National Guard troops are enduring. There is another round of stop losses
coming for the next rotation to Iraq -- further alienating a natural
Republican constituency that is in near-revolt. Then there are those who
vote Republican because they believe the GOP is more likely to support the
defense and intelligence community: These are the ones who are most shaken
by the Plame affair, which cuts against their perception of Republican
practice. Finally, there are those who generally believe that Republicans
are more effective at conducting foreign policy. It is the support of this
group that is now at risk.
These are overlapping constituencies,
obviously. But that strand of the Republican base that supported the war
even without the issue of WMD, or that could accept misleading
reasons for going to war, is now raising fundamental questions about the
execution of the war. A recent poll shows the president is slipping in this
core constituency.
Political Cycles and Windows of
Opportunity
The rest of the world is sensing this weakness. They
have long experience with the American political cycle and its periodic
weakening of the president. They understand that, despite the objective
power of the United States, internal constraints frequently tie the
president's hands -- limiting his ability to act or to change the pattern of
his actions. These cycles can last from months to several years, but they are
not permanent. They do, however, open important windows of
opportunity.
The obvious example is the Nixon-Ford presidency and
Vietnam, but the weakness extended into the Carter presidency as well. As
events in Iran and Afghanistan transpired, options that might have been
available under other circumstances were not available to Carter. Indeed,
except for the perception that political circumstances precluded the United
States from taking certain actions, it is not clear that either the Iranian
revolutionaries or the Soviet Union would have behaved in exactly the manner
they did. They were able to exploit the temporary situation to their
benefit.
The United States is enormously powerful, and viewed within
the context of a century, these periodic paralyses are not decisive. It has
been established that Woodrow Wilson was unable to control U.S. foreign
policy after World War I. Roosevelt could not act as early as he would have
liked on World War II, and others were unable to keep control in Vietnam and
Iran. But these substantial moments of paralysis and failure did not define
the main trajectory of U.S. power -- which consistently increased throughout
the century. To those who doubt this premise, consider the fate of Japan and
Germany in World War II or the Soviet Union in the Cold War. There were
those -- Henry Kissinger included -- who were prepared to argue that the
United States was a declining power after Vietnam. The decline is hardly
visible 30 years later.
This is not to understate the dilemma now
facing the president. Bush's problems are not trivial: He will be president
for three more years, and if he is paralyzed, other nations will have
opportunities for action they might not otherwise have. But it has to be
kept in balance. The United States does not come near to utilizing its full
power -- a few years of paralysis historically have been compensated for at
later dates, with minimal harm. But as we saw in the 1930s and 1970s, these
periods of U.S. paralysis can have substantial consequences during that time
-- and particularly for the history of other nations. The rest of the world
may have proceeded pretty much as it would have anyway during those periods,
but the course of Vietnamese and Iranian history did not.
At this
moment, a number of secondary powers are considering the condition of the
American presidency. Iran, as we have noted, is one. Russia is another. For
Moscow, the United States is an ally and competitor. If the American
presidency is about to enter a black hole, Vladimir Putin will behave
differently than he otherwise might. China is dealing with a host of
American demands. Those will be dealt with differently if Bush no longer
commands the government but only the White House. And in Iraq, of course,
every party is looking at American will and American guarantees.
Bush
has not lost his presidency. He is merely close to it, and other presidents
have recovered from such precarious positions. What he needs is a decisive
victory within the United States. That is why he has nominated Samuel Alito,
a staunchly conservative judge, for the Supreme Court in place of Miers. Bush
is putting all of his eggs in one basket, looking again to shore up his core
base of support. If he can win this battle, the entire psychology of his
presidency will shift in his favor. If he loses, then he probably will be no
worse off than he was before.
Presidents have power to the extent that
they are perceived to have power. At this moment, Bush's status is uncertain.
He has certainly not yet lost his presidency, but he has not restored his
standing in the polls. It is interesting, therefore, that the status of U.S.
foreign policy rests at this moment on the outcome of a decidedly internal
matter: the battle for the Supreme Court. The fates of other nations -- and
the United States can be decisive in determining their fate -- rest on the
idiosyncrasies of American domestic politics.
14:51 Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this
11/01/2005
Alito is the Wrong Choice
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15:30 Permalink | Comments (1) | Email this
10/27/2005
Unacceptable
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22:51 Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this