Red Alert Special Report: Four Blasts Confirmed in London

Security officials in London have confirmed four blasts (or attempted blasts)
July 21 -- three in the Underground and one on a bus. The incidents come two
weeks to the day after the July 7 London bombings that left 56 dead and more
than 700 injured. They also come at a time when the London mass transit
system is still at heightened security levels following the July 7
attacks.

At 12:38 p.m. local time, London's ambulance service
responded to a call at The Oval station, located in southeast London in a
fairly run-down area near a cricket ground. Witnesses report that a person
with a backpack approached a train, threw the backpack on and fled as other
passengers attempted to give chase. The backpack then gave off small
explosions and noises that "sounded like champagne corks popping."

At
12:45 p.m. local time, emergency services responded to a call from Warren
Street Station in Central London, close to businesses and upscale
neighborhoods. Before the station was evacuated, passengers reported seeing
smoke coming from one of the trains, and some reported seeing a backpack
explode. The British Transport Police reported one injury at Warren Street
but did not specify its nature; reports also indicate that police detonated
suspicious items at the station as a precautionary measure. Some reports
indicate a nail bomb exploded on the train.

The third incident
happened at the Shepherd's Bush Station, in a west London commercial
district. This incident was reportedly above ground. There were no reports
of injuries at this incident.

The fourth incident was an explosion
onboard a No. 26 route bus on Hackney Street near Bethnal Green station,
just southwest of Victoria Park in north-central London. A bus driver
reported no injuries; witnesses say windows were blown out of the bus after
an explosion occurred on the upper floor of the double-decker.

The
incidents bear a clear resemblance to the July 7 attacks -- they occurred on
a Thursday, there were three attacks on the Underground and one on a bus, and
the attacks were spread out yet nearly simultaneous. However, the differences
are more striking.

The attacks on July 21 occurred at mid-day, not
rush hour, minimizing the potential casualties. The bombs used were also
apparently significantly smaller, perhaps fireworks and smoke bombs or pipe
bombs. Thus far, only one injury has been reported.

The coordination
and resemblance to July 7 does not appear to be accidental; neither do the
smaller size of the bombs and the off-peak time of the explosions. This
attack was aimed at a more psychological end -- to shatter confidence in the
mass transit system and authorities' ability to provide security.

This
does not appear to be an attack by either the Irish Republican Army or al
Qaeda, given the size of the bombs, though it could have been a move by
local al Qaeda sympathizers. London hosts a large pool of Islamist radicals
who would be interested in riding on the fears created by the July 7
attacks. Though al Qaeda sticks to well-trained operants to carry out
attacks, these independent radicals are ready and willing to become
jihadists. This in turn works in favor of al Qaeda, which has continually
striven to inspire its sympathizers to act on their own with motivation
derived from "the base" -- the literal Arabic translation of "al Qaeda." In
fact, al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden has proclaimed that the United States
and the West would not enjoy security or peace of mind as long as those in
the Muslim world do not. Such sparks of fear clearly follow a Quranic verse
that tells of "striking terror in the hearts of the enemy" -- a verse
frequently used in radical Islamist circles. This was likely the driving
motivation for the copycat bombers, rather than the motivation (or
capability) to kill.

The July 21 incidents in London demonstrate the
vulnerabilities of and difficulties in securing public transportation
systems. Furthermore, if these small bombs could be taken into exactly the
same kinds of targets as the July 7 bombs, more serious incidents cannot be
ruled out.

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