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06/30/2005

Stratfor Public Policy Intelligence Report









Strategic Forecasting
PUBLIC POLICY INTELLIGENCE REPORT

06.30.2005

PETA at a Crossroads

Coming soon -- Stratfor will introduce a weekly article on topical
public policy issues that we believe you will find timely and relevant to
your interests. Following is a sneak preview of what you can expect from
this column, written by Bart Mongoven, Stratfor's Vice President, Public
Policy. Please watch for more details in the coming weeks. In the meantime,
we look forward to hearing your feedback.


By Bart
Mongoven


Two staff members of the Norfolk, Virginia-based People
for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) were arrested in late June,
accused of improperly disposing carcasses of animals the organization had
euthanized. The incident has generated a swirl of controversy around PETA
that carries significant implications for the organization and its
cause.

As an animal-rights group, the mere suspicion that PETA might
be killing animals is cause enough for attention: One of the group's tenets
is that animals enjoy the same right to life as humans do. This position was
best summed up by PETA President Ingrid Newkirk, who famously stated: "A rat
is a pig is a dog is a boy." Like militant opponents of abortion, animal
rights activists take an absolutist position and view themselves as warriors
in a fight against murder.

But despite its unceasing promotion of
animal rights, PETA has now admitted to euthanizing animals -- saying it was
the most humane course of action possible in an area where unwanted shelter
animals frequently are gassed or shot with rifles.

In contrast to
the animal-rights position, euthanasia for animals taken from shelters is a
common and accepted practice among animal-welfare activists -- who argue
that animals should be treated with dignity, compassion and respect, but do
not share the animal-rights groups' position on an animal's "right to life."
The United States is home to many large animal-welfare groups that are
dedicated to numerous concerns, ranging from the treatment of farm animals,
to shelters for unwanted animals, to advocating laws against animal cruelty.
Many animal-welfare organizations take pride in the fact that they euthanize
some animals when they have determined that methods used by a shelter are
less humane than other available options. This approach, however, is
offensive to orthodox animal rights activists, who view it as "playing God."


The situation PETA faces is serious. It represents a difficult
setback for the group, which is struggling to retain its credibility and
relevance amid the growing popularity of more radical -- and sometimes
violent -- activist groups. PETA's reaction therefore will ripple throughout
the animal-rights activist community and affect the public's view of
animal-rights groups and issues.

In styling itself as the country's
leading animal-rights organization, PETA has brought animal rights from the
farthest fringe of American culture to a place of such prominence that most
people know, at least generally, what animal-rights activists believe. PETA
achieved this through an array of creative media stunts and by recruiting
high-profile celebrities to speak on the organization's behalf. The group
hoped that its publicity stunts and occasionally outrageous statements would
bring attention to PETA and its message. And its message has always been
clear: It is neither moral nor necessary to kill animals for research
purposes or to raise them for food, fur or any other form of human
consumption -- and society needs to change fundamentally to reflect this
truth.

This message has spurred thousands of Americans to embrace
animal rights, and for a long time, PETA was the focal organization for
these activists. Some fringe groups also were active, but their memberships
paled in comparison with PETA's. Most notable among the fringe groups has
been the Animal Liberation Front (ALF), which maintains a number of small
cells that specialize in breaking into laboratories and freeing the animals
used in scientific experiments. Despite repeated investigations by the FBI
and other law enforcement agencies, PETA has never been tied to illegal ALF
activities. More to the point, PETA has been careful to avoid endorsing ALF
activities or those of other radical groups, choosing instead to steer a
difficult middle course.

The recent arrests in North Carolina bring
into focus the hazards of this middle course. PETA's traditional message --
"killing is wrong" -- was effective in its simplicity and at the same time
neither advocated nor condemned any particular tactical approaches. However,
in the immediate wake of the euthanasia discovery, PETA's message (at least
for now) is far more nuanced: "Killing animals for human use, food, research
or sport is wrong, and killing is acceptable only if it is in the interest of
the animal, not convenience." Though this is still a strong message, it lacks
the simplicity and clarity that has made PETA so successful -- and it
concedes the main point that divides animal-rights groups from the
animal-welfare movement.

And here is the crux of the issue for the
animal-rights movement as a whole. Even though the euthanasia solution
adopted by PETA is characteristic of animal-welfare organizations -- and
contrary to animal-rights orthodoxy -- PETA is not an animal-welfare
organization and does not want to become one. There are hundreds of
animal-welfare organizations vying for a limited pool of donors and members.
Each of these groups benefits from the intense light that PETA shines on
issues relating to animal cruelty -- but PETA is able to focus this light
only by its advocacy of animal rights, not animal welfare.

Even if
its work at times reflects animal-welfare values, PETA has carved out a
space separate from animal-welfare groups. This delicate position remained
tenable so long as PETA's claims to be the nation's foremost animal-rights
group went unchallenged. But today, activists who claim they are taking
their beliefs in animal rights to a logical extension by using violent
tactics are mounting a bid for leadership of the broader
movement.

This new style of activism was brought to the United States
by a British group, Stop Huntingdon Animal Cruelty. SHAC focuses its efforts
solely on the animal testing firm Huntingdon Life Sciences and employs a
campaigning style that is a hybrid between ALF's vandalism-and-violence
strategy and the very sophisticated, peaceful market campaigns that have
worked well for labor unions, timber activists and others. For instance,
SHAC -- whose members compare their work to that of Civil War abolitionist
John Brown -- intimidates, and occasionally physically accosts, executives
from Huntingdon and companies that do business with it. The group forced
Huntingdon to leave the United Kingdom, single-handedly got the company's
stock de-listed from the London Stock Exchange and has cost Huntingdon
millions of dollars in cancelled contracts.

SHAC makes PETA uneasy.
The group certainly is acting out a philosophy consistent with animal-rights
beliefs. PETA advocates the same philosophy, but its most visible tactics --
typified by having models strip naked on New York's Fifth Avenue to protest
fashion designers' use of fur -- offer a light alternative. PETA, therefore,
has been facing a bit of an identity crisis.

Rather than join the
crowded field of animal-welfare groups or cede the crown of animal-rights
activism, PETA has responded to the rise of SHAC by initiating a campaign
using a SHAC-like market approach to the chicken industry. Thus, a more
strident PETA campaign now is focusing on the KFC restaurant chain, with
activists harassing executives at their homes and launching protests at
events meant to improve KFC's brand and image or to introduce new products.
In short, it bears all the hallmarks of a SHAC campaign, but without the
physical violence or threats of violence.

At the same time, however,
PETA remains attached to the controversial media stunts on which it made its
name. Animal-welfare organizations view these stunts as counterproductive
and silly, and SHAC-style activists see them as as affronts because they
trivialize important issues. These criticisms notwithstanding, the media
ploys are mother's milk for PETA because they bring attention to the animal
rights cause, anger or amuse the mainstream public, and encourage
donations.

Now, into PETA's difficult re-branding effort, comes the
discovery that the group is euthanizing animals. While the full impact of
this controversy is difficult to predict, it cannot help the organization on
any front. PETA does not want to join the long list of animal-welfare
organizations: It is unlikely to find many new donors among the
animal-welfare crowd, and in any case PETA is not built to act as an
animal-welfare organization. The more likely response would be for the group
to differentiated itself from animal-welfare organizations by appearing every
bit the angry, motivated animal rights group that SHAC is. This change will
not take place overnight -- but if it was important for PETA to react to
SHAC's rise with the KFC campaign several months ago, it is critical now
that it re-establish its animal-rights credentials.

Whatever
direction PETA takes, SHAC will be the chief beneficiary of this
controversy. If PETA comes to be viewed by the movement as a "soft"
animal-rights group, the core of the movement will turn to SHAC and similar
organizations. And if PETA tries to compete with SHAC, it will pull the
entire movement toward the tactics for which SHAC is known -- and which the
more radical group long has argued are the only coherent response to animal
abuses.

Should SHAC emerge at the fore of the movement, the public's
impression of animal-rights activism will change markedly: It will come to be
seen as a threat to the status quo, as encouraging home-grown terrorism and
as extremely radical. The public's perception of animal rights would shift
from a view of the movement as a quixotic stage through which many young
people go, to a dangerous, alluring ideology that must be
addressed.

Whether this would be good or bad for the movement itself
is difficult to predict.

Send questions or comments on this article to analysis@stratfor.com.



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17:16 Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this

12 hours, one decision

Dear Friend,


We have less than 12 hours to act. The critical June 30th fundraising deadline arrives at midnight tonight. We need to act today to stop the Republicans who control Washington from trying to completely take over the Senate and shut out those who fight for you every day. I'm urging you to act by rushing an immediate donation to one or more of three vitally important Senate campaigns.


Contribute to Senator Byrd

Contribute to Challenger Casey


Contribute to Senator Conrad


Senator Kent Conrad and Senator Robert Byrd have been strong independent voices in the Senate - leaders who consistently use their seniority and savvy to put the interests of the people ahead of the special interests. Bob Casey is on track to stop Rick Santorum's bid for re-election in Pennsylvania. Let's put together a powerful show of strength. Let's make it clear to Republicans dead set on defeating these candidates that we'll do whatever it takes to help them win.


Senator Byrd has been targeted by President Bush for defeat because he has defended the Constitution and the system of checks and balances from the Washington Republicans who seek absolute power over the federal government. We need Senator Byrd's courageous voice in the Senate.


Contribute to Senator Byrd


In order to unseat Senator Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, one of President Bush's top lieutenants, we need to send as much support as possible to Democratic candidate Bob Casey who will replace the right-wing agenda with common sense solutions.


Contribute to Challenger Casey


And Senator Conrad, in his position as ranking member on the Senate Budget Committee, has led the fight against President Bush's distorted policies that favor tax cuts for the rich, have produced devastating record budget deficits, and have threatened the safety net for the middle class.


Contribute to Senator Conrad


We're pulling out all the stops to help Senate candidates locked in the toughest races. And nobody needs or deserves your support more than the leaders I've mentioned.


Give to one of them - or better still, donate to all three. But, whatever you do, act now.


Contribute to Senator Byrd

Contribute to Challenger Casey


Contribute to Senator Conrad


Don't hesitate for a moment. With the deadline fast approaching, it's vitally important that you participate right now.


Sincerely,


John Kerry



14:27 Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this

Stratfor Public Policy Intelligence Report

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
Date: Jun 30, 2005 1:39 PM
Subject: Stratfor Public Policy Intelligence Report
To: danhabbott@gmail.com




PUBLIC POLICY INTELLIGENCE REPORT
06.30.2005

PETA at a CrossroadsComing soon -- Stratfor will introduce a weekly
article on topical public policy issues that we believe you will find
timely and relevant to your interests. Following is a sneak preview of
what you can expect from this column, written by Bart Mongoven,
Stratfor's Vice President, Public Policy. Please watch for more
details in the coming weeks. In the meantime, we look forward to
hearing your feedback.

By Bart Mongoven

Two staff members of the Norfolk, Virginia-based People for the
Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) were arrested in late June,
accused of improperly disposing carcasses of animals the organization
had euthanized. The incident has generated a swirl of controversy
around PETA that carries significant implications for the organization
and its cause.

As an animal-rights group, the mere suspicion that PETA might be
killing animals is cause enough for attention: One of the group's
tenets is that animals enjoy the same right to life as humans do. This
position was best summed up by PETA President Ingrid Newkirk, who
famously stated: "A rat is a pig is a dog is a boy." Like militant
opponents of abortion, animal rights activists take an absolutist
position and view themselves as warriors in a fight against murder.

But despite its unceasing promotion of animal rights, PETA has now
admitted to euthanizing animals -- saying it was the most humane
course of action possible in an area where unwanted shelter animals
frequently are gassed or shot with rifles.

In contrast to the animal-rights position, euthanasia for animals
taken from shelters is a common and accepted practice among
animal-welfare activists -- who argue that animals should be treated
with dignity, compassion and respect, but do not share the
animal-rights groups' position on an animal's "right to life." The
United States is home to many large animal-welfare groups that are
dedicated to numerous concerns, ranging from the treatment of farm
animals, to shelters for unwanted animals, to advocating laws against
animal cruelty. Many animal-welfare organizations take pride in the
fact that they euthanize some animals when they have determined that
methods used by a shelter are less humane than other available
options. This approach, however, is offensive to orthodox animal
rights activists, who view it as "playing God."

The situation PETA faces is serious. It represents a difficult setback
for the group, which is struggling to retain its credibility and
relevance amid the growing popularity of more radical -- and sometimes
violent -- activist groups. PETA's reaction therefore will ripple
throughout the animal-rights activist community and affect the
public's view of animal-rights groups and issues.

In styling itself as the country's leading animal-rights organization,
PETA has brought animal rights from the farthest fringe of American
culture to a place of such prominence that most people know, at least
generally, what animal-rights activists believe. PETA achieved this
through an array of creative media stunts and by recruiting
high-profile celebrities to speak on the organization's behalf. The
group hoped that its publicity stunts and occasionally outrageous
statements would bring attention to PETA and its message. And its
message has always been clear: It is neither moral nor necessary to
kill animals for research purposes or to raise them for food, fur or
any other form of human consumption -- and society needs to change
fundamentally to reflect this truth.

This message has spurred thousands of Americans to embrace animal
rights, and for a long time, PETA was the focal organization for these
activists. Some fringe groups also were active, but their memberships
paled in comparison with PETA's. Most notable among the fringe groups
has been the Animal Liberation Front (ALF), which maintains a number
of small cells that specialize in breaking into laboratories and
freeing the animals used in scientific experiments. Despite repeated
investigations by the FBI and other law enforcement agencies, PETA has
never been tied to illegal ALF activities. More to the point, PETA has
been careful to avoid endorsing ALF activities or those of other
radical groups, choosing instead to steer a difficult middle course.

The recent arrests in North Carolina bring into focus the hazards of
this middle course. PETA's traditional message -- "killing is wrong"
-- was effective in its simplicity and at the same time neither
advocated nor condemned any particular tactical approaches. However,
in the immediate wake of the euthanasia discovery, PETA's message (at
least for now) is far more nuanced: "Killing animals for human use,
food, research or sport is wrong, and killing is acceptable only if it
is in the interest of the animal, not convenience." Though this is
still a strong message, it lacks the simplicity and clarity that has
made PETA so successful -- and it concedes the main point that divides
animal-rights groups from the animal-welfare movement.

And here is the crux of the issue for the animal-rights movement as a
whole. Even though the euthanasia solution adopted by PETA is
characteristic of animal-welfare organizations -- and contrary to
animal-rights orthodoxy -- PETA is not an animal-welfare organization
and does not want to become one. There are hundreds of animal-welfare
organizations vying for a limited pool of donors and members. Each of
these groups benefits from the intense light that PETA shines on
issues relating to animal cruelty -- but PETA is able to focus this
light only by its advocacy of animal rights, not animal welfare.

Even if its work at times reflects animal-welfare values, PETA has
carved out a space separate from animal-welfare groups. This delicate
position remained tenable so long as PETA's claims to be the nation's
foremost animal-rights group went unchallenged. But today, activists
who claim they are taking their beliefs in animal rights to a logical
extension by using violent tactics are mounting a bid for leadership
of the broader movement.

This new style of activism was brought to the United States by a
British group, Stop Huntingdon Animal Cruelty. SHAC focuses its
efforts solely on the animal testing firm Huntingdon Life Sciences and
employs a campaigning style that is a hybrid between ALF's
vandalism-and-violence strategy and the very sophisticated, peaceful
market campaigns that have worked well for labor unions, timber
activists and others. For instance, SHAC -- whose members compare
their work to that of Civil War abolitionist John Brown --
intimidates, and occasionally physically accosts, executives from
Huntingdon and companies that do business with it. The group forced
Huntingdon to leave the United Kingdom, single-handedly got the
company's stock de-listed from the London Stock Exchange and has cost
Huntingdon millions of dollars in cancelled contracts.

SHAC makes PETA uneasy. The group certainly is acting out a philosophy
consistent with animal-rights beliefs. PETA advocates the same
philosophy, but its most visible tactics -- typified by having models
strip naked on New York's Fifth Avenue to protest fashion designers'
use of fur -- offer a light alternative. PETA, therefore, has been
facing a bit of an identity crisis.

Rather than join the crowded field of animal-welfare groups or cede
the crown of animal-rights activism, PETA has responded to the rise of
SHAC by initiating a campaign using a SHAC-like market approach to the
chicken industry. Thus, a more strident PETA campaign now is focusing
on the KFC restaurant chain, with activists harassing executives at
their homes and launching protests at events meant to improve KFC's
brand and image or to introduce new products. In short, it bears all
the hallmarks of a SHAC campaign, but without the physical violence or
threats of violence.

At the same time, however, PETA remains attached to the controversial
media stunts on which it made its name. Animal-welfare organizations
view these stunts as counterproductive and silly, and SHAC-style
activists see them as as affronts because they trivialize important
issues. These criticisms notwithstanding, the media ploys are mother's
milk for PETA because they bring attention to the animal rights cause,
anger or amuse the mainstream public, and encourage donations.

Now, into PETA's difficult re-branding effort, comes the discovery
that the group is euthanizing animals. While the full impact of this
controversy is difficult to predict, it cannot help the organization
on any front. PETA does not want to join the long list of
animal-welfare organizations: It is unlikely to find many new donors
among the animal-welfare crowd, and in any case PETA is not built to
act as an animal-welfare organization. The more likely response would
be for the group to differentiated itself from animal-welfare
organizations by appearing every bit the angry, motivated animal
rights group that SHAC is. This change will not take place overnight
-- but if it was important for PETA to react to SHAC's rise with the
KFC campaign several months ago, it is critical now that it
re-establish its animal-rights credentials.

Whatever direction PETA takes, SHAC will be the chief beneficiary of
this controversy. If PETA comes to be viewed by the movement as a
"soft" animal-rights group, the core of the movement will turn to SHAC
and similar organizations. And if PETA tries to compete with SHAC, it
will pull the entire movement toward the tactics for which SHAC is
known -- and which the more radical group long has argued are the only
coherent response to animal abuses.

Should SHAC emerge at the fore of the movement, the public's
impression of animal-rights activism will change markedly: It will
come to be seen as a threat to the status quo, as encouraging
home-grown terrorism and as extremely radical. The public's perception
of animal rights would shift from a view of the movement as a quixotic
stage through which many young people go, to a dangerous, alluring
ideology that must be addressed.

Whether this would be good or bad for the movement itself is difficult
to predict.

Send questions or comments on this article to analysis@stratfor.com.
NEW from STRATFOR: The Source You Rely on for Your Most Important
Strategic Decisions Announces the Launch of GLOBAL VANTAGE - A New
Pilot Service Dedicated to Today's Business and Government Leaders.

The new service meets the demands of STRATFOR's most discerning
customers and clients, providing regional focus and global perspective
for your strategic planning needs, helping leaders at the top of
business and government navigate their way through the complex
geopolitical and economic environment in their areas of activity
around the globe.

STRATFOR's GLOBAL VANTAGE includes:
Monthly Forecast Reports, Region by Region, including a Comprehensive
Global Overview
Executive Teleconferences, featuring Dr. George Friedman
Daily Regional Intelligence Summaries
Red Alerts on Breaking Intelligence
Direct Access to STRATFOR Analysts



Get a complimentary Global Vantage sample report and find out more
today by e-mailing globalvantage@stratfor.com.


Do you have a friend or acquaintance that would benefit from the
consistent actionable intelligence of the FREE STRATFOR Weekly
Geopolitical Intelligence Report?

Send them to https://www.stratfor.com/subscribe_free_intel.php to sign
up and begin receiving the Stratfor Weekly every Tuesday for FREE!


The STRATFOR Weekly is e-mailed to you on an opt-in basis with
STRATFOR. If you no longer wish to receive regular e-mails from
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www.stratfor.com or e-mail info@stratfor.com today!
(c) Copyright 2005 Strategic Forecasting Inc. All rights reserved.

14:26 Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this

06/27/2005

Blackjack Online

Recently, tdaxp and junk politics were hit by comment spam about online casino games. You know, roulette online, blackjack online, free slots -- that sort of thing. "How," I wondered, "would I ever combat this avalanche of casino gambling?"

20:14 Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this

06/25/2005

Signposts- Sunday, June 26, 2005

(Freely pass to people you know. Thanks.)


Signposts - Sunday, June 26, 2005


June 19, 2005 - June 25, 2005

from the blog of Thomas P.M. Barnett


www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog




Discussion at
www.bloggingthefuture.com/discuss


+++++



The next step in the Sino-American economic
relationship


"Meet China Inc.: Topping Japan Inc. of 1980s:
Corporate China Shows Muscle As Host of Global Bids Emerge, Marking
Only Start of Deal Flow,"
by Henry Sender, Wall Street Journal,
24 June 2005, p. C1.

"Buying Sprees By China Firms Is a Bet on Value Of U.S.
Brands,"
by Geoffrey A. Fowler, Wall Street Journal, 24
June 2005, p. B1.


"Unocal Sale Could Signal New Directions: Purchase of U.S.
Company by Chinese Firm Is Seen as Shift in Investment Approach,"

by Greg Ip, Wall Street Journal, 24 June 2005, p. A10.


"Oil Battle Sets Showdown Over China: CNOCC's Offer For Unocal
Raises Stakes in Conflict Over Sino-U.S. Ties; Threat, Rival or Vast
Market?"
by Neil King, Jr., Greg Hitt and Jeffrey Ball, Wall
Street Journal
, 24 June 2005, p. A1.



WSJ with a slew of articles Friday that really dissect the larger
meaning of CNOOC's bid for UNOCAL. The bid is not as weird as it might
seem, because most of UNOCAL's assets are in Asia or Asian focused in
service. Plus, it ain't exactly a nasty battle between Chevron (other
suitor) and CNOOC (China National Offshore Oil Corp), because they
partner on other deals in China and Asia.


Larger reality is that China will naturally move into oil industry
in big way, both uptream (exploration and production) and downstream
(refining and distribution), because of its skyrocketing demand for
oil. Even larger reality is that the huge trade surplus creates large
dollar reserves, and after you buy as many US T-bills as possible, and
pour so much into the secondary mortgage here that it may be fueling
the real estate bubble just a bit too much, the next logical step in
deeper connectivity with the trading partner is too use those funds to
buy companies. This is exactly what Japan did way back when, freaking
us then too (they were going to "own" all of America).


But buying American means China intertwines its economic fate with
ours even more, by trusting the lasting appeal of U.S. brands that
sell--not too surprisingly--mostly to American consumers.


Threat or rival or opportunity? It's simply better for China's
rising economy to become more connected to ours. They benefit. We
benefit. The world benefits. My man Alan Greenspan is a long-time
backer of the notion that China and U.S. must come closer together
economically. Watch for him to dampen the typically idiotic response
out of Congress to try and stop this bid, which could easily fail on
its own because Chevron is already on the inside track to closing this
deal.


Posted at
11:48 AM
Evoked? Provoked? Ask Tom or
discuss at Blogging
the Future



Iran: connecting and disconnecting at the same time


"Victory Is Seen For Hard-Liner In Iranian Vote:
Reformers Fear Sharp Shift on Freedoms,"
by Michael Slackman, New
York Times
, 25 June 2005, p. A1.

"Iran Pipeline Complicates South Asian Policy: U.S. Tries to
Balance Aiding India-Pakistan Rapprochement With Isolating Tehran,"

by Jay Solomon and Neil King, Jr., Wall Street Journal, 24 June
2005, p. A4.



The news on the Iranian election is depressing. The hard-liner
Tehran mayor wins by pulling in the rural poor and enough of the middle
class, which apparently is sick of state corruption and felt Rafsanjani
wouldn't do enough to tackle that (his presidency in the 1990s was full
of corruption). It's a sad expression of how bad things are in Iran
that a public hungry for reform will take the hard-liner who promises a
cleaner government over one far more likely to open up to the West.


But the vote makes a lot of sense from an internal perspective. What
good is better ties with the outside world if the government is that
corrupt?


This election portends no movement on the nuke issue with Tehran.


But you know what else won't be going away soon? The U.S.'s
uncomfortableness over the gas pipeline from Iran through Pakistan to
India. No one will budge on that project, because India and Pakistan
see it as a huge confidence-building measure and India simple needs the
gas too bad.


Hard-liners will come and go, but the pipeline will stay. We better
figure out how to come to grips with Iran given these inescapable
realities.


Posted at
11:33 AM
Evoked? Provoked? Ask Tom or
discuss at Blogging
the Future



Brazil: the downside of the AIDS drugs threat


"Brazil Mulls Drug Patent Theft as an AIDS Antidote:
Eroding property rights will only result in more misery for the
afflicted,"
op-ed by Mary Anbastasia O'Grady, Wall Street
Journal
, 24 June 2005, p. A13.

O'Grady, whom I respect, raises several important issues against a
stance I generally support, causing me to think harder on the subject.


On the face of it, Brazil's threat to break AIDS drugs' patents for
use in their country seems like a logical give on the Old Core's
part--here largely American Big Pharma.


But O'Grady lists several downsides worth considering:


1) Brazil wants to become a biotech center in the global economy,
and companies won't go there if they fear they'll be ripped off.


2) Foreign direct investment will suffer.


3) Brazil already gets breaks on the drugs that are under patent,
and several of the drugs they currently use have no patent protection.


4) This is part of Brazil's larger effort within the World
Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) to push a "development
agenda," and such a push may put them at odds with fellow New Cores
India and China, which are making big efforts to strengthen property
and intellectual rights in their countries in order to keep the FDI
flowing.


5) Brazil ain't exactly poor, seeing that it has a space program and
big time aircraft industry.


So is Brazil moving closer in the direction of the Irans, Cubas and
Venezuelas of the world? Or is this just further evidence that Brazil's
preferred role is that of a New Core pillar that argues for Gap rights?


Posted at
11:24 AM
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Trade protectionism of the worst sort


The U.S. fights a losing battle when it seeks to stop New Core
countries like Brazil from confronting a mounting AIDS crisis within
their ranks. Joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) means you
respect patents, but a medical emergency clause seems reasonable enough
to me here. What Brazil does today, expect India, Russia, and China,
three countries with even bigger crises, to do tomorrow.


June 23, 2005

Brazil's Right to Save Lives


Editorial, New York Times


Brazil has the best anti-AIDS program of any developing country.
It has a model prevention effort and was the first poor country to
provide free AIDS treatment to all who need it, a program countries
around the world are now beginning to emulate.


It has been able to afford this because Brazilian labs make
copycat versions of expensive brand-name drugs. Brazil can freely copy
any drug commercialized before 1997, when the country began to respect
patents on medicines, a requirement for joining the World Trade
Organization. But newer AIDS medicines are still imported and are
expensive, and Brazil is spending two-thirds of its antiretroviral
budget on just three of these drugs.


The government is now contemplating measures that would allow
Brazilian labs to copy these drugs. Brazil's health ministry has asked
the manufacturers of the drugs to voluntarily license Brazil to make
copies. They have refused, and Brazil is threatening to break the
patents and pay the holders a reasonable royalty, as W.T.O. rules
require ...



Full text at
nytimes.com/2005/06/23/opinion/23thu3.html


Posted at
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The new "China price" on oil


Buying the PC company from IBM is one thing, buying UNOCAL (refining
and distribution, or "downstream" oil company) is quite another. This
bid probably fails, but it is a sign of things to come.



Chinese Oil Producer Makes Bid For Unocal

CNOOC's Unsolicited Proposal Tops Price Accepted From Chevron


By Gary Gentile

Associated Press

Thursday, June 23, 2005; Page D01


LOS ANGELES, June 22 -- China's third-largest oil producer made an
unsolicited $18.5 billion bid Wednesday for oil-and-gas company Unocal
Corp., which has already agreed to be acquired by Chevron Corp. for
$16.6 billion.


Unocal acknowledged the offer from state-run CNOOC Ltd., an
affiliate of China National Offshore Oil Corp., to buy the company for
$67 a share in cash. Unocal, based in El Segundo, Calif., said it would
evaluate the bid but that its board's previous recommendation to
shareholders to accept the Chevron offer remained in place ...



Full text at:
washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/22/AR2...


Posted at
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Ignatius gives Rice her due


Passed on to me by Mike Bussio:


Here is the opening:


Rice's Useful Rhetoric By David Ignatius Wednesday, June
22, 2005 Speeches don't change the world, but they sometimes put down
markers for policymakers and help ordinary folks understand what's
going on. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's speech in Cairo this
week about Middle East democracy struck me as one of those important
yardsticks. The initial take on Rice's speech focused on her evaluation
of the democratic progress of other nations -- of Egypt, Saudi Arabia,
Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan, specifically. She pressed those
countries to reform their political systems, while noting that local
reformers must lead and define the agenda and set the pace of change.
Amen.

But an overlooked aspect of Rice's speech was that it established
guideposts by which to measure the policy of the United States. She
enunciated a pro-democracy position so forcefully that if the Bush
administration deviates from it, or undermines its credibility through
belligerent, anti-democratic actions, it will be open to the charge of
hypocrisy . . .



Full text at
washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/21/AR2...
.


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A serious comparison point on Iraq


Passed on by that maven of the latest articles, Mohamed Ibn Guadi.



Vietnam vets in Iraq see 'entirely different war'


By Steven Komarow, USA TODAY Tue Jun 21, 7:19 AM ET


For the full article, see
usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2005-06-20-iraq-vietnam-vet...


Before dawn, the pilots digest their intelligence briefing with
coffee. The sun rises as they start preflight checks. Just after 7:30,
they start rotors turning on their UH-60A Black Hawk, and ease it
smoothly into the desert sky.


Chief Warrant Officers DeWayne Browning and Randy Weatherhead will
take off and land a dozen times this hot day, ferrying infantry troops
battling Iraq's insurgents in the Sunni Muslim heartland that Saddam
Hussein calls home.


Only if those young troops look closely, past the jumble of struts
and wires and into the obstructive flight helmets, will they notice
something odd: Browning's gray, nearly white moustache and telltale
furrows on Weatherhead's face.


Browning, 56, of Paradise, Calif., and Weatherhead, 57, of Elk
Grove, Calif., are grandfathers. They first flew combat missions in
Vietnam, before most of the soldiers in the current Army were born.
They and others their age are here with the National Guard's 42nd
Infantry Division, which includes some of the oldest soldiers to serve
in combat for the modern U.S. Army. Few soldiers or officers in the
military, other than the service's top generals, are as old.


If there are parallels between Iraq and Vietnam, these graying
soldiers and the other Vietnam veterans serving here offer a unique
perspective. They say they are more optimistic this time: They see a
clearer mission than in Vietnam, a more supportive public back home and
an Iraqi population that seems to be growing friendlier toward
Americans.


"In Vietnam, I don't think the local population ever understood
that we were just there to help them," says Chief Warrant Officer James
Miles, 57, of Sioux Falls, S.D., who flew UH-1H Hueys in Vietnam from
February 1969 to February 1970. And the Vietcong and North Vietnamese
were a tougher, more tenacious enemy, he says. Instead of setting off
bombs outside the base, they'd be inside.


"I knew we were going to lose Vietnam the day I walked off the
plane," says Miles, who returned home this month after nearly a year in
Iraq. Not this time. "There's no doubt in my mind that this was the
right thing to do," he says ...



My thanks to Mohamed Ibn Guadi in France.


Posted at
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The power of unconventional thinking


"Where Would We Be Without Unconventional Thinking,"
advertisement by Barclays, New York Times, 21 June 2005, p. A7.

I can't resist one more dig at Friedman's "World is Flat" metaphor.
I come across this Barclays full-page color ad in the NYT, which
consists of a flat globe sitting on stand. It's the perfect image for
Friedman's book, much better than that weird art of ships going off the
edge of the world that was used in some hardcover versions.


And yet, the ad points out the against-the-grain metaphor that
Friedman ended up with when he sought to recast a "level playing field"
as a "flat world": the text of the ad starts with "Without
unconventional thinking, the world would still be flat and we'd still
be living in caves. Heck, we'd probably never have climbed down from
the trees in the first place."


It could have continued: "At Barclays we believe in providing our
clients with metaphors that don't create cognitive dissonance . . . "


Still, the whole "flat" metaphor did do a better job of disguising
the fact that Friedman was basically issuing a compilation of his op-ed
columns than the previous title "Longitudes and Attitudes" did.


Here's hoping I always stay slightly afraid of both my publisher and
my editor . . . so that I heed their advice.


Posted at
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The elections in the Mideast


"Anti-Syrian Bloc Claims A Victory In Lebanese Vote:
Last Round of Elections; Alliance of Ex-Premier's Son Wins Majority of
Parliament Seats,"
by John Kifner, New York Times, 20 June
2005, p. A1.

"Iran Moderate Says Hard-Liners Rigged Election: Investigation
Demanded; Conservative Mayor and Former President Are Seen in Runoff,"

by Michael Slackman, New York Times, 19 June 2005, p. A1.


"Iranian Reform Party Hints That It Will Support Insider: A
reluctant move to stave off a popular hard-liner,"
by Michael
Slackman, New York Times, 20 June 2005, p. A8.


"Iran's Leaders Warn Candidate Who Charged Vote Fraud: But
Rafsanjani Backs Inquiry, Too,"
by Michael Slackman, New York
Times
, 21 June 2005, p. A3.



Decent signs from the two recent elections in the Big Banged Middle
East.


In Lebanon, the anti-Syrian forces seem to have captured the
parliament, securing the recent apparent gains of the "cedar
revolution" that had little to do with "democratizing" Lebanon (already
a decent democracy) and more to do with simply throwing the Syrians out
after their own SysAdmin role wore out its welcome (better than civil
war and better than Israeli occupation, but no longer needed now that
America is committed to fostering political change in the region).


In Iran, a fairly expected outcome: vote rigged just enough to make
sure run-off election would be a call between the former president
Rafsanjani and the hard-core conservative (but popular) mayor of
Tehran. Good news is that the reformist blocs are coalescing around
Rafsanjani as the lesser of two evils. To offer a comparison, it would
be like a 1968 U.S. presidential election where vote-rigging had kept a
Humphrey out of contention so that the choice would come down to a
Nixon versus a George Wallace. At this point, the Nixon is the better
choice.


The big question is whether this Nixon goes to "China" (here, the
U.S.) and what deals are possible. Many doubt Rafsanjani will deal at
all, but I'm far more optimistic. Anybody who can engineer such a
Nixon-like resurrection is not to be underestimated.


Posted at
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The numbers game in Iraq


"Choose: More Troops In Iraq Will (Help) (Hurt): At
home, calls for an exit strategy. In Iraq, calls for more combat power,"

by John F. Burns, New York Times, 19 June 2005, p. WK1.

"Marines See Signs Iraq Rebels Are Battling Foreign Fighters:
Insurgents may resent Jihadist violence against civilians,"
by
Sabrina Tavernise, New York Times, 21 June 2005, p. A6.



We wanted Iraq bad and we got it bad. We opted for the fastest sort
of Leviathan war (smart choice), but then turned cheapskates on the
SysAdmin effort, and we continue to argue the wrong debate: it ain't
about who "lost" the war (it was won, decisively), but about who
bungled the peace and let the insurgency become so destructive. Back
home plenty of politicians want an exit strategy (Powell Doctrine
rearing its non-strategic head), so we can get out of Dodge as fast as
possible, presumably to schedule our return date with greater accuracy.
But the SysAdmin commanders in the field, who simultaneously battle a
die-hard insurgency while trying to nation-build, clearly want more
boots on the ground. Having alienated so much of the world in the
run-up to the war, the Bush administration is reduced to
"staying-the-course" pronouncements that spell q-u-a-g-m-i-r-e to many
American parents of soldiers in southwest Asia right now.


Frankly, the best news coming out of Iraq right now is the rising
frequency of red-on-red fire, meaning indigenous insurgents battling
foreign fighters. If the two sides cannot stay together, then the
legitimacy of the U.S.-led SysAdmin force presence is already gaining
significant ground. Ideally, we become part of the country's natural
immune system and it's the foreign jihadis that attract the most
attention. When our security becomes their security, the SysAdmin
effort begins to succeed for real.


Instead of trying to prove that we fought the war correctly, we
should instead be focusing on demonstrating our awareness that the
SysAdmin function is necessarily a multilateral affair that requires a
region-heavy effort to reintegrate the country in question back into
the international fold, otherwise we're just creating another Israel: a
pilot program surrounded by a plethora of failed regimes (and yeah, I
consider most Arab state-heavy regimes to be essentially "failed," as
in, they "fail" to get their populations connected up to the global
economy, much less prepare them for such a competitive environment.


Posted at
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Locating China in history: 4 new data points


"Rape in China: A Nightmare For 26 Pupils," by Jim
Yardley, New York Times, 21 June 2005, p. A1.

"Chinese Furniture Is In Such Demand, No Widow Is Safe: Men
Rudely Enter Homes And Induce Folks to Sell; 'More Wolves Than Meat,'"

by Karen Mazurkewich, Wall Street Journal, 20 June 2005, p. A1.


"Chinese Bank Takes Lead In Privatizing: Stake by U.S. Bank Is
Seen as First Step,"
by David Barboza, New York Times, 18
June 2005, p. B3.


"China's New Frontiers: Tests of Democracy and Dissent,"
by Howard D. French, New York Times, 19 June 2005, p. A6.



Yet another of my continuing efforts to locate China in past U.S.
history.


The first story of the frighteningly arbitrary power of teachers in
poor rural areas in China has an almost Dickensian quality to it. It's
"Oliver" in the worst way, proving that China's coastal regions may be
approaching a U.S.-like economic standard, but that there's still a
vast sea of inland population that's stuck in Appalachia-like
impoverishment, at best dating them in the range of 1920s America.
China will go majority urban around 2020, roughly a century after the
U.S. did. Expect a huge amount of political change to catch up with all
that social change in that timeframe.


The whole mania for scrounging up antique Chinese furniture so it
can be sold abroad speaks to an extreme compression of time in China: a
super-connecting economy finds buyers for the household goods of the
most disconnected (typically) rural poor. It's like these "raiders of
the lost folk art" are pillaging the country's past in real time, able
as they are to travel back in time simply by visiting the countryside
and preying upon the elderly there.


But China is also moving smartly into the present, showing more and
more signs that the government realizes that the best way to reform
banking is to have foreign banks buy into the system, bringing their
"new" rules (at least to the Chinese bankers) and their old money to
help transition the industry from the bad practices (and bad loans) of
the past. This simultaneously feels like the rise of better banking
practices in the U.S. during the Great Depression and the raging bank
mergers of more recent years.


And the final story has an almost 1970s California ring to it, as
political decision making is increasingly devolving to local
governments on economic development issues, and politicians there are
likewise turning to almost "proposition"-like polling methods to sound
out the public on how to move ahead. These politicians don't do it
because they want to per se, but because they've seen too many
provinces succumb to angry mob violence when the local population's
desires are routinely ignored by secretive and elitist
government-decides-all methods of economic planning. I mean, in one
instance we're talking about a local Communist Party official bringing
in a Stanford political scientist to oversee focus groups.


Posted at
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SARBOX for the non-profit world


"In Sarbanes-Oxley Era, Running a Nonprofit Is Only
Getting Harder,"
by Carol Hymowitz, Wall Street Journal, 21
June 2005, p. B1.

Interesting article on how Sarbanes-Oxley, or the law that requires
corporations to engage in much more stringent bookkeeping after the
many corporate scandals associated with the tech crash, is having a
spillover effect in the non-profit world. The sense of a higher
standard of accountability being demanded nowadays is simply permeating
beyond its intended immediate audience, as the power of the new rules'
example spreads.


Such social dynamics only demonstrate the almost limitless
applicability of the software products brought to market by Enterra, the company with
which my own consultancy has partnered in a strategic alliance.


And yeah, we do intend on making money through this collaboration.
And we intend to do it the old-fashioned way, by pushing products we
really believe in.


Posted at
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Who's really winning the ideological struggle


"Cheer Up Conservatives, You're Still Winning! The
right has walloped the left in the war of ideas,"
op-ed by John
Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge, , June 2005, p. A1.

"Rice Urges Egyptians and Saudis to Democratize," by
Steven R. Weisman, New York Times, 21 June 2005, p. A1.


"Uzbek Ministries in Crackdown Received U.S. Aid," by C.J.
Chivers and Thom Shanker, New York Times, 18 June 2005, p. A1.



As always, an interesting and provocative op-ed from those Economist
guys with the godawful British names. This one underscores how Bush's
brand of core values conservatism continues to grow in strength across
the country, especially among the people making a lot of babies, which
tends to be the religious whites and the immigrant populations, both of
whom prefer clear and less ambiguous rule sets within which to raise
their families.


Yes, they say, Bush is spending a lot of money, but virtually none
is designed to redistribute wealth in society through government
programs. Plus, look at the last election, where seemingly the Dems had
everything going for them and still lost an election far less close
than the one that preceded it.


Honestly, thinking about 2008 reminds me of when one of the two NFL
conferences dominates the other for long stretches: the real contest
for president is most likely in the Republican primaries, not the
national election.


And you see this in foreign affairs: the Bushies are simultaneously
the realpolitik types who are unafraid to rely on dictators and the
Wilsonian types lecturing the Egyptian and Saudi leaderships on
becoming more democratic.


The U.S. foreign policy that emerged in The New Map Game earlier
this month was described by Alidade president Jeff Cares as a sort of
"Republican Carter" administration, and I honestly think that
description captures what most Americans will vote for in 2008: not too
aggressive, not so ambitious as Bush, but focused on encouraging
positive change that's defensible on moral grounds. I don't see the
Democratic contender yet who can deliver that, but I suspect there are
several on the Republican side who will.


Posted at
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It's so often a women's thing inside the Gap


"The 11-Year-Old Wife," op-ed by Nicholas D.
Kristof, New York Times , 21 June 2005, p. A23.

Nick Kristof claims that two women die each day in Pakistan from
honor killings (basically sex outside the marriage getting you killed
in today's version of stonings, which, sometimes are still stonings).
It's one of those factoids you want to resist embracing, because it's
so hard to verify.


But there's no denying Pakistan's "hudood laws," which Kristof says
have been used to imprison "thousands of women who report rapes."
Here's the amazing standard: to verify a rape a women needs to have
four male witnesses to the act. Sounds like a good-old-rapist-boys law
that makes it impossible to ever catch one after the fact. The catch 22
is obvious: you can't get the four witnesses, so you, the woman, go to
jail for admitting having "illicit sex." If there is a better way to
scare females from ever reporting rapes, I haven't heard it. Such laws
have the effect of making rape legal in the society. So if a woman gets
too uppity in the business world or in family life or in stirring up
trouble in general, you rape her and knock her off her stride. And if
she complains she lands in jail.


Kristof tells the story of women in Pakistan who demonstrated for
equal rights. They were clubbed by police and dragged to the station.
The ringleader's fate was to be stripped naked in public.


Pakistanis are rightfully resentful that such headlines are the main
depictions of their society in the West, but they should target their
own political system for that anger. Bad people doing bad things will
happen anywhere, but bad laws that let them get away with it tend to be
defining features of the Gap, not the Core.





Flying cars: a beneficiary of the 9/11 rule-set reset?


"Envisioning a Day When the Skies Will Teem With Air
Taxis: A new generation of small jets that fly where no airliner would
deign to go,"
by Matthew L. Wald, New York Times, 19 June
2005, p. A12.

One weird sidelight to the 9/11 attacks was how the resulting
rule-set reset on airport security torpedoed a lot of smaller regional
airports (I am reminded of my travel through Charlottesville airport
last week when the TSA security team consisted of 6 people to process
people in vast droves of onsies and twosies). It was the final nail in
the coffin for these struggling airports, who were collapsing under the
competitive pressure of the hub-ification of the American airline
industry, thanks to companies like Southwest (indeed, one of the key
choices for where we ended up living after our move was my demand that
we live near a SWA hub).


Well, all those hubs still leave a lot of America off-grid. I may
feel like the country is my giant commuter grid, but there are so many
places where you're really in the wilderness as far as air travel is
concerned (like most of Vermont we visited last weekend). There are 429
major airports in America, but a whopping 5,400 more with no scheduled
service at all.


To fix this gap, here comes the mico-jets of today, armed with
onboard satellites and computers that do the air traffic control for
smaller airports that have no such technology. The rubric for this
emerging suite of technologies is called the Small Aircraft
Transportation System, or SATS. We're talking jets designed for just 5
or 6 passengers.


Like so many answers that work best in "shrinking the Gap" (or gaps
within the Core), this is a small-but-beautiful approach. I can foresee
microloans for microjets for microairlines. And if it can be done here
in the Core it can be done in the Gap.


Jet power to the people!


Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett at
12:43 AM
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Millennium challenged


"Trade and Aid to Poorest Seen as Crucial on Agenda
for Richest Nations,"
by Celia W. Dugger, New York Times,
19 June 2005, p. A8.

"A Timely Departure," editorial, New York Times,
19 June 2005, p. WK11.


"Bush Aid Initiative for Poor Nations Faces Sharp Budget Cuts
and Criticism of Slow Pace,"
by Celia W. Dugger, New York Times,
17 June 2005, p. A8.



Tony Blair and Jeff Sachs and the ONE campaign want the U.S. to plus
up their development aid to Africa, but just pouring more money on the
problem is not the answer. The Old Core spends more than a quarter
trillion on ag subsidies to its own farmers each year, more than three
times the money it collectively provides the Gap in Official
Developmental Aid (ODA). The World Bank estimates that if all such
subsidies were removed and trade barriers eliminated, the in-kind
transfer to the Gap would be in the range of $100 billion in
income-just like that.


Who would you rather bet on? The corrupt governments of Africa or
the farm households there? Which do you think will get you a middle
class faster?


Meanwhile, Bush's Millennium Challenge Account remains challenged by
its own bureaucracy and Congress's penchant for slicing and dicing
foreign aid to death, earmarking as much as possible for pet projects
that favor their own voting districts (the bane of the U.S. Agency for
International Development these many decades now). The Account just
lost its director after just over a year or so in the job, and it's
only set up two accounts to date in Madagascar and Honduras. People
(and African governments) complain about the Account's strict
guidelines on corruption and the like, but its heart is in the right
place. Still, the NYT editorial is right: the MCA could learn plenty
from the World Bank's Fast Track program in speeding money to deserving
states.


Posted at
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How the Leviathan's insider status is maintained


"An Office and a Gentleman: In Corporate Jobs, Old
Generals Find a Hero's Welcome,"
by Leslie Wayne, New York
Times
, 19 June 2005, p. BU1.

The U.S. spends almost $80 billion a year on weapons, so guess how
hard it is for retired four-stars to find seats on big corporate boards
upon retirement. The "grey beards," as they are known inside the
military, become a powerful voice for the past, as they tend to
advocate for big, established programs that fit the wars they remember
from their command youth. Their powerful connections tend to create a
drag on change. Among this crowd, you find a lot of retired flags who
still argue vehemently for China-as-the-next-threat. Why? It fits the
model they grew up with. They spent most of their military careers
making such arguments for the Leviathan force.


You want to find the voices for the SysAdmin force, then talk to the
young officers just back from command in the Gulf. But they're about 20
years away from sitting on any corporate boards, so expect the
acquisitions community to put up one helluva fight to retain their
preferred Leviathan force structure for as long as possible.





I want my MTV Desi!


"I Want My Hyphenated-Identity MTV: Videos conquered
America, and then the world. What's left? Something in between,"
by
Deborah Sontag, New York Times, 19 June 2005, p. AR2.

MTV already has channels in India, South Korea and China. Now
they'll have hybrid versions for second-generation Indians (MTV Desi),
Koreans (MTV K) and Chinese (MTV Chi) here in the states. Hip hop and
rap will figure prominently in all three channels. No surprise there,
as it's become the current young generation's preferred cultural
vehicle for expressing all the usual alienation and angst of growing up
in the modern world. The big distinction here is the stylized content
and the focus on the politics and sociology of identity. Make young
people feel like they belong, no matter the niche, and they don't
become angry, disassociated and desirous of change through violence.
Instead, they find their own way and on that basis feel a lot of
freedom, which-quite frankly-is far more about economics than it is
politics.


Again, recalling my piece in the Baltimore Sun a while back
regarding the ever-diversified face of globalization, this is yet
another example of why no one will confuse globalization with
Americanization in coming years.


To me this is also a clear indication of New Core status: when
you're so inside the Core's main economy (the United States) that MTV
gives your nationality its own hybrid channel.


What does "desi" stand for? One theory is "doctors earn significant
incomes."


Move over Carson Daly, here comes Niharika Desai.


...


David Geoge, via Tom's webmaster, interrupts...


"Desi" is not an acronym. It's a word that Indians use to refer to
Indians. DEH

19:30 Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this

06/24/2005

Newt Gingrich: Today on the Rick Tyler Show - The Changing Dept. of Veterans Affairs

Today on the Rick Tyler Show



 


Join my guest host Scott Hogenson.  Scott is the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs at the Department of Veterans Affairs.  Scott has a long background in broadcasting and conservatism.
 


 


He will talk about his current role at the VA and the upcoming 75th year anniversary of the VA.  He and his guests will also discuss the history of the VA and how it is changing.
  He will broadcast from the Department in Washington, DC.  So enjoy the show, I will be back next week.

 



Rick Tyler,
Communications Director & Spokesperson for Newt Gingrich hosts a
one-hour weekly talk show Friday at 3:00 p.m. ET



LISTEN IN AT RIGHTALK.COM



CALL THE SHOW - 1-866-884-TALK (8255)

06:59 Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this

06/23/2005

John Edwards: 36 Million

Dear Friend,




Elizabeth and I believe strongly in the power and dignity of
hard work. I remember mornings before school when my dad would
sit at the kitchen table worrying over paper work and jotting
down notes. It wasn't the family bills; he was trying to improve
his math skills by watching public TV programs about probability
and statistics. He believed, as we do, that hard work should be
the means to a better life in America.




But 36 million Americans are impoverished today - that's 13
million more than there were thirty years ago - and many are
hard working men and women who simply cannot work their way out
of poverty. No one has all the answers, but one solution is
clear: we need to raise the minimum wage in America.




You can tell a lot about a nation's character by how its
leadership treats those who are struggling. It's a national
disgrace that our minimum wage is so low, and yet President Bush
and Republicans in Congress refuse to raise it. I've met single
mothers who work full time, some even hold down two jobs - but
each month they struggle to pay the bills, and they certainly
can't build assets or save up for a family crisis.




One stroke of bad luck could send them and their families over
the cliff.




That's why I've been working with grassroots organizations,
labor unions, elected officials, and other progressive allies to
fight for a higher minimum wage, and that's why I'm asking for
your support as we take this issue to the states. Next week we
will rally in Phoenix, Albuquerque, Lansing, Cleveland, and
Columbus to call for increases in the minimum wage. Please
ask your friends to
join us at these upcoming
events
as we push for a ballot measure on this
all-important issue.




The Bush Administration and Republicans in Congress have blocked
efforts to raise the federal minimum wage. By taking the issue
directly to state ballots, we can go around the Republican
stonewall and give greater financial opportunity to millions of
working Americans. Seventeen states and the District of Columbia
have already enacted higher minimum wage rates over the last few
years, and Nevadans will vote on a statewide measure in 2006.
With your help, we can bring more states along.




Legislators take notice when grassroots organizations and
thousands of voters unite behind an issue. Let's make our voices
heard: encourage your
friends
to join us as we restore dignity and hope to
hard working Americans.




Please also visit our
Web site
to learn more about the fight for a fair minimum
wage, and check back next week to see footage from the events
mentioned above.




Your friend,




John

18:15 Posted in John Edwards | Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this | Tags: Politics

06/20/2005

Elizabeth Edwards: Announcing The One America Bookcast


Dear Friend,





I want to thank you for your all of your thoughts and prayers
since I was diagnosed with breast cancer last November. I have
gained so much strength from all of your good wishes, and I am
pleased to report that my health is steadily improving. A few
weeks ago, I completed all of my treatment, and I have more
energy and feel better every day. My doctors are very optimistic
and they expect me to have a strong recovery.





During this process John and I constantly talked about how hard
it would be to face what we faced without having access to
health care or without our basic needs being met. Unfortunately,
many working Americans are still struggling to make ends meet;
the disparity between the two Americas is as great as ever. So I
would like to let you know about some of the things that John
has been up to lately. To shine a spotlight on the working poor,
John has traveled the country these past few weeks and talked
with working men and women who live in poverty every day. Their
stories are troublingly similar: they work as many hours as they
can, sometimes holding down more than one job, but they barely
scrape by each month. If one member of the family falls ill,
they have to choose between paying for treatment and paying for
food. That's not a choice any working family should ever have to
make.





Thankfully, there are talented, tireless individuals - like
Pulitzer Prize-winning author David Shipler - who are dedicated
to uniting our two Americas. In his book "The Working Poor,"
David writes: "No one who works hard should be poor in America."
John and I couldn't agree more.





David spoke with working men and women across the country to
discover how they live, why they are poor, and how we can do
better by them. Not only does David vividly portray their plight
- he deftly assesses the personal and societal shortcomings
behind it. David shows how poverty acts like an ecological
system: rising rents, low wages, bad credit, and malnutrition
are not isolated factors, but rather they interact and
exacerbate each other, creating a vicious cycle. This leads to
insurmountable debt and, worse, it crushes hope. Working
Americans should not have to struggle to survive, and until we
change our policies and our leadership, we will see our two
Americas drifting dangerously farther apart.





John and I think "The Working Poor" is a very accurate and
compelling portrayal of the poverty we've seen firsthand, and we
want as many people as possible to read this book. We are eager
to hear what you think about it so please visit our site and
post comments in our new Book
Forum
. This week David will join the Forum to respond to
your comments, so be sure to check for that. Through the Forum
you can also download
our very first bookcast
, in which John, David, and I
discuss "The Working Poor" and field your questions. We urge you
to read this book and offer your insights. To eradicate working
class poverty, we must understand how and why people are
struggling.





Thank you for your continued commitment to One America, and take
care.





- Elizabeth Edwards

14:48 Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this

[NRSP Update] The Newsletter from Thomas P.M. Barnett - June 20, 2005

The Newsletter from Thomas P.M. Barnett
20 June 2005

Download at:

PDF: http://www.newrulesets.com/journals/barnett_20jun2005.pdf


Word: http://www.newrulesets.com/journals/barnett_20jun2005.doc

New! Discussion Forum:

http://www.bloggingthefuture.com/discuss/


If you wish to stop receiving NRSP Updates, simply send an email to
unsubcribe@newrulesets.com.

Thanks.


--
Critt Jarvis
Partner/Webmaster/Interlocutor
The New Rule Sets Project, LLC.
Email: Critt.Jarvis@newrulesets.com
www.newrulesets.com


Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog
www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog

The Newsletter from Thomas P.M. Barnett

www.newrulesets.com/newsletter.html


Blogging the Future
Blog: www.bloggingthefuture.com
Forum: www.bloggingthefuture.com/discuss/




13:17 Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this

06/18/2005

[NRSP Update] Signposts- Sunday, June 19, 2005

(Freely pass to people you know. Thanks.]


Signposts - Sunday, June 19, 2005


June 12, 2005 - June 18, 2005

from the blog of Thomas P.M. Barnett


www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog




Discussion at
www.bloggingthefuture.com/discuss


Our enemies, our solutions (part 1)


"Magnet for Iraq Is Test for U.S. Strategy," by
Richard A. Oppel, Jr., New York Times, 16 June 2005, p. A1.

"Uncle Sam Really Wants You: Army recruiters invade the
schools,"
op-ed by Bob Herbert, New York Times, 16 June
2005, p. A29.


"Iran Said to Admit Tests on Path to Atom Arms: Agency Report
Suggests Hiding of Attempt to Create Plutonium,"
by Richard
Bernstein, New York Times, 16 June 2005, p. A12.


"Not Our Man in Iran: Why do we want Rafsanjani back?,"
op-ed by Danielle Pletka, New York Times, 16 June 2005, p. A29.



The U.S. finds itself retaking cities again and again. The pattern
of win the mini-war and lose the mini-peace is a microcosm of our
entire experience there.


And it is wearing on the morale of the troops. And it is hurting
recruiting. And it is costing the U.S. military more than it knows in
public support.


There is an ally we need to create in the region and it's name is
Iran. Like Nixon's Doctrine of decades before, we need to tap into a
regional pillar whose interests, once the old hatreds are put aside,
are amazingly similar to our own.


Iran gets the bomb. The strip tease we watch today means only that
Tehran is signaling throughout this process. It is signaling the price.


Rafsanjani will not give up the bomb, but he will give up the
revolution for a price. His price is worth paying. Lives will be
spared. The Big Bang will gain speed. America will get its happy ending
to this chapter in the Global War on Terror.


It is time to move on. It is time to turn enemies into solutions.


Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett at
09:11 PM
Evoked? Provoked? Ask Tom or
discuss at Blogging
the Future



Our enemies, our solutions (part 2)


"North Korea Sparks Proliferation Fears Throughout
Asia: Historic Rivalries Exacerbate Nuclear Anxiety in Region; Tapei
Frets About China; Japan's New Plutonium Plant,"
by Carla Anne
Robbins and Gordon Fairclough, Wall Street Journal, 16 June
2005. p. A1.

"Chinese City Emerges as Model in AIDS Fight," by Jim
Yardley, New York Times, 16 June 2005, p. A1.


"Disney's China Play: Its New Hong Kong Park Is a Big Cultural
Experiment; Will 'Main Street' Translate?"
by Geoffrey A. Fowler
and Merissa Marr, Wall Street Journal, 16 June 2005, p. B1.



The U.S. is very unhappy to see North Korea get the bomb, and so it
frets that Japan will reach for it out of fear, as will South Korea.
Both certainly could, and then East Asia would have five nuclear
powers, including the always present U.S. Right now it has two, which
seems better. The countries with the most to lose in this development
are China and the United States―no question.


So where is the quid pro quo to keep the status quo?


We can either deal with new nuclear powers, or we can eliminate the
emerging third one. If we topple Kim, we secure America's long-term
security standing in the region via a new strategic partnership with
China. How do I know this? Such an achievement is basically the price
for getting China's help.


Instead, we offer China nothing on security and plenty on insecurity
and wonder why Beijing does not play along. We're asking China to sell
something that was once very dear to them. So why can't we figure out
the price?


You tell me that China can't be trusted, that it's political scene
is too authoritarian. Non-pluralistic yes, but the authoritarianism is
far more limited than most imagine. China is opening up to the outside
world is all spheres, and in only one―the political sphere―is Beijing
resisting the reformatting of its rule sets that such opening up
typically entails. That is the price the Chinese leadership demand for
this growing connectedness. It is a small price to pay, and one we've
paid many times in the past, yielding, slowly but surely over time,
real pluralism in countries like . . . South Korea, Japan and Taiwan.


Of course, we have huge military power over all three of those
countries, and we have far less over "rising China," but that just
means we have to actualize our military advantage in different ways: by
using it to give China things it wants and in exchange demanding
certain efforts on Beijing's part.


You look around China and you see a society adapting rapidly and―for
the most part―quite effectively to modernization and rapid
industrialization and ever rapid post-industrialization. China will
teach us many things in coming years, as it confronts problems like
pollution, or AIDS, or cancer, or a host of other problems we've
already marginalized but haven't really conquered. There is much profit
and much promise in China's rise. I mean, if it can teach Disney about
feng shui, it can teach the world about so much more.


What stands between the now and the strategic partnership that will
define the 21st Century are old wounds and old fights from another age.
It is time to move on. It is time to turn enemies into solutions.


Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett at
09:10 PM
Evoked? Provoked? Ask Tom or
discuss at Blogging
the Future



No Rumsfeld wars, but no Rumsfeld peace either


"Suicide Bomber Kills 22 In Attack At An Iraq Bank:
Timed to Kill Pensioners; Assault in an Area of Rich Oil Fields May
Signal a Fight for Its Control,"
by Edward Wong, New York Times,
15 June 2005, p. A1.

"Let's Talk About Iraq: What is the strategy?" op-ed by
Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times, 15 June 2005, p. A29.


"Memo: U.S. Lacked Full Postwar Iraq Plan: Advisers to Blair
Predicted Instability,"
by Walter Pincus, Washington Post,
12 June 2005, p. A1.


"Pentagon Funds Diplomacy Effort: Contracts Aim to Improve
Foreign Opinion of United States,"
by Renae Merle, Washington
Post
, 11 June 2005, p. D1.



Friedman is right to note the worsening security situation in Iraq
since the elections, but he continues to get it wrong on
Powell-versus-Rumsfeld. His take on the Powell Doctrine is simply out
of date and here's why: Powell was never about nation-building or the
second-half effort, and his overwhelming force doctrine was about
keeping the warfighting first-half effort as short as possible in order
to leave the playing field as quickly as possible.


Friedman may mock Rumsfeld with the "Rumsfeld Doctrine" of "just
enough troops to lose," but his head's way up his ass on that one. The
Rumsfeld Doctrine is called using the information age to tilt the
playing field overwhelming in the U.S. favor, thus reducing the number
of soldiers we need to put at risk on the ground during war.
Efficiency, Tom. Doing more with less people. Read your own book for
Christ's sake!


What hasn't been married up to that transformed first-half force is
a second-half force that's far more fully committed to nation-building.
Here is where Powell's doctrine should live in the "flat world": in the
second-half where there is no such thing as having too many cops on the
beat.


Two concepts, Tom. Learn to distinguish between the two. The war was
won. What is being squandered is the peace.


We've got to get better at the whole shebang of nation-building,
from the initial planning right through to the strategic communications
that signal our intentions far more clearly. That is not winning (or
losing wars), but learning how to wage peace better.


Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett at
11:42 PM
Evoked? Provoked? Ask Tom or
discuss at Blogging
the Future



Iran's sullen majority to speak out?


"Iran's Giant Question Mark: To Vote or Not?" by
Neil MacFarquhar, New York Times, 14 June 2005, p. A4.

"As Iran's Vote Nears, Even Clerics Are Hip, Or Are Trying to
Be: Front-Runner Rafsanjani Woos Young People; Disco Balls, Soccer
Rallies,"
by Farnaz Fassihi, Wall Street Journal, 13 June
2005, p. A1.


"Iran's Giant Question Mark: To Vote or Not?" by Neil
MacFarquhar, New York Times, 14 June 2005, p. A4.


"Iranian Women Defy Authority to Protest Sex Discrimination,"
by Nazila Fathi, New York Times, 13 June 2005, p. A8.


"Kuwait Names Woman to Cabinet," by Hassan M. Fattah, New
York Times
, 13 June 2005, p. A8.


"Why I'm Joining Al Jazeera," op-ed by Riz Khan, Wall
Street Journal
, 13 June 2005, p. A12.



The Iranian election is proving to be quite the show. Two-thirds of
the population are under 30 and since you can vote at 16, roughly 70
percent of the voting public is under 30. Attracting the youth vote is
a must, so even a Nixon-like Rafsanjani, whose presidency in the 1990s
was full of corruption and tough stances on liberals and critics, gets
into the act.


Still, Rafsanjani would like be an improvement over the dashed hoped
created by Khatami, whose surprise victory in 2001 led many to hope for
reforms, only to see those hopes dissolve with 9/11 and Iran being
named―quite deservedly, mind you―to the Axis of Evil.


I think Rafsanjani offers more hope in the same way that Nixon went
to China: you need someone trusted by the hard-liners but practical
enough to see the future for the current log-jam to be solved. That
log-jam being Iran wants to rejoin the world enough to revive its
economy, but doesn't seem willing to compromise enough on key political
issues (WMD, terrorism) to make that connectivity a possibility. So
maybe Nixon doesn't need to go to Tehran if he's already there in the
form of a newly "re-elected" president.


And maybe we'll just have Rafsanjani to kick around for a few more
years.


If elected, and he's now the front-runner (something I blogged as a
possibility a while back), Rafsanjani will face a public that's getting
impatient for real change, with a key driver being women who are sick
and tired of being treated like minors in their own country throughout
their lives (their placards, not mine). So either Rafsanjani placates
such demands somehow, or he would inevitably oversee a further
distancing of even more of the public from a government that most
loath. Again, the Nixon imagery here is more than apt.


But I am more than upbeat on the Big Bang's continued unfolding in
the region. There is a real sense of urgency, of "enough already!" When
Al Jazeera starts its English-version channel, I'll be interested
enough to watch it, assuming I can locate it somehow on cable or the
web.


Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett at
11:41 PM
Evoked? Provoked? Ask Tom or
discuss at Blogging
the Future



Politicians are expert at pissing in the wind on
global trade and integration


"CAFTA in Peril on Capitol Hill: One Business Leader
Gives Lawmakers an Ultimatum,"
by Thomas B. Edsall, Washington
Post
, 12 June 2005, p. A6.

"Central American Trade Pact Passes First Congressional Test,"
by Elizabeth Becker, New York Times, 15 June 2005, p. C4.


"European Charter's Architect Faults Chirac for Its Demise,"
by Elaine Sciolino, New York Times, 15 June 2005, p. A3.


"Blair-Chirac Clash Could Paralyze EU: Disputes on Budget,
Charter May Undermine U.K.'s Bid To Steer Bloc in Its Direction,"

by Marc Champion and Dan Bilefsky, Wall Street Journal, 15 June
2005, p. A13



CAFTA (Central American Free Trade Agreement) seems in danger in the
House, but less so in the Senate (the usual rule). Dems are predicting
a 90 percent against rate for their numbers in the House, even as
business association reps like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Thomas J.
Donahue promise financial (as in election campaign donations)
retributions.


Watching the Dems on this one is like watching the French and Dutch
on the EU Constitution. It is typically the out-of-power party in the
Core that argues for go-slow on globalization, preying on people's pain
and fears. Ross Perot and the Republicans did it plenty under Clinton,
and now the Dems do it big time under Bush. Leading is all about the
future, and when you're in power, it's hard to do anything but embrace
globalization for the challenges it represents. But when you feel like
you're falling behind in the game, like the French seem to feel across
the board, then the best you can do is try and prevent the future for
as long as possible.


Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett at
11:41 PM
Evoked? Provoked? Ask Tom or
discuss at Blogging
the Future



Real estate bubble is global, emphasizing
globalization's profound connectivity


"Stocks? How Boring. If you want to get people really
excited these days, just say the two magic words: real estate,"
by
George Anders, Wall Street Journal, 13 June 2005, p. R7.

"Real Estate, the Global Obsession," by Steve Lohr, New
York Times
, 12 June 2005, p. WK1.


"Hot Towns," table, Wall Street Journal, 13 June
2005, p. R3.



We have reached the point in the real estate bubble when everyone
seems to be piling on. An unusual percentage of purchases (20-25%, by
some estimates) nowadays are by people who have no intention of living
on the premises―meaning either landlords or pure speculators. I am
happy to be leaving the East Coast under these insane circumstances for
the more reasonable Indianapolis